A thick, black plume of smoke rose over a residential district of Moscow as a major oil refinery burned, its roof blown off by an enormous explosion. Residents complained of a fine, oily drizzle leaving "unpleasant black spots" on their clothes, while authorities urged asthmatics and families with children to leave the area. This was the aftermath of the largest Ukrainian drone attack on the Russian capital since the full-scale war began, with close to 200 drones launched in a single night.
The attack targeted the Kapotnya oil refinery on Moscow's south-eastern edge, a facility that supplies up to 40% of the capital's petrol and about half its diesel. It was the second time the refinery had been hit that week. Russian authorities reported 17 wounded, and more than 500 flights were cancelled or delayed as Moscow's four airports temporarily shut. In the southern Rostov region, an oil depot was also struck, killing one person.
“Explain why Ukraine's drone strikes on Moscow mark a major shift in the war and what it means for Russia and the world.”
Ukraine's ability to strike deep inside Russia has grown significantly during the war, driven by increasingly sophisticated, largely domestically produced long-range drones. Thursday's attack used a mix of conventional propeller-driven drones and a new jet-powered missile-drone called the Bars, which Kyiv publicly unveiled in late 2024 or early 2025. Faster and harder to intercept, these weapons strained Moscow's dense air-defence network, with videos showing drones flying over the city largely unchallenged.
For UK readers, the attack has immediate practical consequences. The closure of Moscow's airports disrupted international flights, including many connecting through Russian airspace. More broadly, the strike on a key energy facility threatens to increase global oil price volatility, which directly affects UK fuel costs. The escalation also raises the risk of a wider war: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov promised "massive coordinated strikes on a regular basis" against Ukraine, and a retired Russian general called for Russia to "strike the enemy mercilessly."
Q: What was Ukraine trying to achieve by hitting Moscow's oil refinery? A: Ukraine aimed to disrupt Russia's domestic fuel supply and demonstrate its growing long-range strike capability. The refinery supplies a large share of Moscow's petrol and diesel, so damaging it directly affects Russian civilian life and the war economy. President Zelensky also framed the attack as retaliation for a Russian strike that set fire to a historic monastery in Kyiv.
Q: How did Ukraine manage to penetrate Moscow's air defences? A: The sheer scale of the attack — nearly 200 drones — appears to have overwhelmed Russian air defences, which are the densest in the country. Additionally, Ukraine used jet-powered missile-drones like the Bars, which fly faster and are harder to intercept than conventional propeller drones. Videos showed some drones flying over the city unchallenged.
Q: What does this mean for the future of the war? A: The attack marks a major escalation, bringing the war home to Muscovites in a new way. Russia has threatened massive retaliation, potentially including even larger strikes on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. It also shows that Ukraine is willing and able to strike strategic targets deep inside Russia, raising the stakes for both sides as the conflict enters its fifth year.
What happens next is uncertain but fraught with risk. Russia has promised to respond with heavy, coordinated strikes. Ukraine, meanwhile, continues to develop its domestic drone industry, suggesting further attacks on Russian soil are likely. The EU has reopened talks with Russia on diplomacy, but the fighting shows no sign of abating. For ordinary Britons, the war's trajectory remains a key driver of energy prices and geopolitical stability.