Only two vessels with active location trackers have exited the Strait of Hormuz since Sunday, according to ship-tracking website MarineTraffic – a stark contrast to US President Donald Trump’s declaration that “ships are starting to move loaded up with oil” through a strait he called “totally safe, secure and pristine”.
The White House and the Iranian regime have agreed a framework deal to end hostilities after more than three months of war that began on 28 February, closing one of the world’s key water transport routes for oil, liquid natural gas and other commodities. Global oil prices soared as supplies were squeezed. But the announcement of a peace deal has sparked a cautious rally on financial markets, with stocks surging and oil prices dropping – though experts warn a return to normal shipping will take months.
“Only two vessels have exited the Strait of Hormuz since the US-Iran deal as experts warn a return to normal oil flows will take months.”
“Let the oil flow!” Trump said in a social media post heralding the agreement, which he said would include the reopening of the strait. BBC Verify, however, checked ship-tracking data and found only a bulk carrier and a tanker have exited since Sunday. Hundreds of vessels remain stuck in the Gulf, with the risk of sea mines or drone strikes preventing safe passage.
Denmark’s Maersk, the world’s second biggest shipping line, has five ships stuck and said it was too early to assess how the agreement “will impact logistics”. German shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd has four vessels in the strait and hopes to get them out over the weekend, once the deal is signed and any remaining mines are cleared.
Neil Shearing, group chief economist for Capital Economics, said it remained to be seen whether the latest deal “represents a fragile truce or a durable settlement”. He added that it was likely it will “take some time for oil flows through the Strait to return to pre-war levels”. “Even if ships now have safe passage, tankers are in the wrong place, oil production/refining facilities need to get up to full capacity, and questions over the cost and availability of insurance for ships traversing the Strait will remain,” he said.
The strait has been closed to most traffic since 28 February, with only limited numbers of vessels friendly to Iran able to pass. Even before the agreement, during the ongoing ceasefire, shipping companies were largely reluctant to move their vessels. The impact of the war, experts warn, will continue to affect the global economy for potentially months to come – leaving the question of whether this deal marks a true end to the crisis or merely a temporary pause.