For weeks, the world watched as the United States and Iran teetered on the brink of a broader war. Then, unexpectedly, a deal was announced: a Memorandum of Understanding signed by both sides, brokered by Pakistan with support from Qatar and other states. US President Donald Trump declared it would "bring Peace and Security to the whole Region," while Iran's deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi hailed his country's military achievements. But even as the ink dries, the agreement is already under strain—particularly over its provisions for Lebanon, where Israel says it will keep its forces indefinitely.
The basics of the deal are that the US and Iran have agreed to end what the BBC calls "the war they are in." That includes lifting Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the US blockade of Iranian ports, though not necessarily immediately. For the global economy, reopening the Strait—a chokepoint for oil shipments—would help lower energy prices, a relief to world leaders. For Iran, the end of the blockade offers respite to a collapsing economy. Crucially, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who first announced the agreement, said it also calls for "the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon."
“Explains the US-Iran deal, its fragile ceasefire in Lebanon, and what it means for the UK.”
That clause is the most contentious. The conflict in Lebanon involves Israel and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group. Recent weeks have seen Israeli strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs in response to Hezbollah rockets into northern Israel. Twice in the past week, those strikes nearly derailed the US-Iran talks. Although Iran pulled back from retaliating with another missile attack on Israel to get the deal across the line, Israel has shown no sign of stopping its offensive. Israeli defence minister Israel Katz stated that the military would remain in security zones in southern Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza "without any time limit." Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not indicated a willingness to end operations against Hezbollah.
This is not the first time a ceasefire has failed to take hold in Lebanon. Two recent ceasefires have already collapsed. The deal between the US and Iran does not directly include Israel, which is not a party to the agreement. So it remains uncertain whether the promised termination of military operations will provide any real respite to Lebanese civilians, many of whom have fled their homes and are now attempting to return.
For UK readers, the implications are significant. The UK is a close ally of the US and has deep ties to the Gulf region. Instability in the Middle East affects global oil prices, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could ease pressure on household fuel bills. The conflict also fuels refugee flows and security concerns in Europe. The UK has been closely monitoring the situation, and the G7 summit—where Trump landed in Geneva ahead of a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron—will likely address the deal's implementation. Macron has said he will seek to persuade Trump to continue supporting Ukraine, but the Iran deal will also be high on the agenda.
Q: Will the deal bring peace to Lebanon? Not necessarily. While the agreement calls for an end to military operations in Lebanon, Israel has said it will keep its forces there indefinitely. Two recent ceasefires have already failed, and Israeli strikes on Beirut have continued even as the deal was being finalised. The situation remains fragile.
Q: Why is Israel not part of the deal? The agreement is between the US and Iran only. Israel was not a party to the negotiations. Israeli officials have made clear they will continue operations against Hezbollah regardless of the US-Iran deal, citing the need to protect their border from "jihadist elements."
Q: Does the deal prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon? That remains unclear. The US and Israel had said stopping Iran's nuclear ambitions was a key goal of going to war. Iranian state media has reported that the deal includes some mechanism to prevent nuclear development, but this will need to be clarified in intense negotiations after the signing ceremony.
What happens next? The signing ceremony is still several days away, likely in Switzerland. The path to that day is far from straightforward—Israeli attacks could still derail the process. Trump has warned both Iran and Israel: "Let's not blow it." The G7 summit will be a key moment for allies to push for stability. For now, the world waits to see whether this deal will hold or become another failed attempt at peace.