The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which about a fifth of the world's oil passes, could soon reopen under a peace deal between the United States and Iran that has been promised within hours but remains uncertain in its timing. The deal, if signed, would end a conflict that began with American and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February and has since drawn in Hezbollah in Lebanon, disrupted global energy markets, and raised fears of a wider war in the Middle East.
The current push for a deal follows months of intermittent fighting and negotiations mediated by Pakistan and Qatar. US President Donald Trump has claimed that the agreement will be signed on Sunday, 14 June, and that immediately afterwards the Strait of Hormuz will be "open to all". However, Iran has cast doubt on that timeline. Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said on Saturday that an exact date had not been decided, blaming US inconsistency. Iran's Fars news agency reported that Tehran had not yet taken a final decision on the framework agreement and was still reviewing its political, legal, and technical dimensions. Qatari negotiators arrived in Tehran on Sunday to try to finalise the process, though it was unclear if that would affect the timing.
“An explainer on the US-Iran peace deal, the Strait of Hormuz, and what it means for the UK.”
The war began on 28 February when the US and Israel launched strikes across Iran that, according to the Metro, assassinated Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and heavily degraded Iran's military capabilities. In response, Iran attacked Israel and US-allied Gulf states and effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz by launching drones and threatening shipping. The US military said it shot down multiple Iranian drones heading toward the strait as recently as Saturday. A ceasefire was agreed in April but has been fragile, with Israel striking Hezbollah targets in Beirut repeatedly, most recently in what it said was a response to Hezbollah projectiles launched into northern Israel.
For UK readers, the significance of this deal goes beyond headlines about a distant conflict. The Strait of Hormuz is a chokepoint for global energy supplies: oil and liquefied natural gas from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar pass through it. Its closure has already contributed to volatility in energy prices, which directly affects household bills and the cost of petrol at UK pumps. A lasting reopening would help stabilise prices, while any breakdown in the talks risks further disruption. The UK also has historical and diplomatic ties in the region and is likely to be watching closely as the G7 summit approaches, where the deal is expected to be a key topic.
The proposed agreement is being compared to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the international nuclear deal from which Trump withdrew during his first term. Trump has called his new agreement a "wall to no nuclear weapon" and claimed that Iran no longer wants a nuclear weapon. He also referenced Iran's enriched uranium stockpiles, saying that at the appropriate time the US would "go in and get the nuclear dust" and destroy it. However, the i newspaper notes that this "dust" is actually approximately 972 pounds of uranium gas enriched to up to 60%, stored in cylinders inside underground containers — a material far from harmless. Iran has long denied seeking nuclear weapons, insisting its programme is for peaceful purposes.
Q: Why is the Strait of Hormuz so important? The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil and a significant portion of liquefied natural gas shipments pass. Any disruption to shipping there can cause global energy prices to spike, affecting households and businesses around the world, including in the UK.
Q: What was the JCPOA and how does this deal differ? The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action was a 2015 agreement between Iran and world powers that limited Iran's uranium enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief. The US withdrew in 2018 under Trump. The current deal is being negotiated bilaterally between the US and Iran, with mediation by Pakistan and Qatar, and reportedly includes an end to fighting in Lebanon and provisions for Iran's nuclear programme. Trump claims it is stronger, but Iran has not yet signed.
Q: What are the main obstacles to a deal? The main obstacles are the exact timing, accusations that Israel's strikes on Hezbollah in Beirut violate the ceasefire, and disagreements over verification of Iran's nuclear commitments. Iran has made an end to the fighting in Lebanon a condition of any wider agreement, and its top negotiator said Israeli attacks show the US "either lacks the will to fulfill its commitments or the ability to do so".
What happens next is uncertain. Pakistan has said it is preparing for an "electronic signing" of a peace deal within 24 hours, followed by technical talks next week. But Iran remains cautious, and with the G7 summit starting on Monday, Trump is under pressure to deliver a signed agreement. He has also warned of an "ultimate alternative" if things do not work out smoothly. For now, the world waits to see whether the Strait of Hormuz will reopen — and whether this fragile peace will hold.