As oil prices plunged 4.4% on Thursday, bringing a barrel of Brent crude down to about $89, the global economy breathed a tentative sigh of relief. The trigger was President Donald Trump's sudden claim that a "great settlement" with Iran was close, hours after he had threatened to hit the country "very hard". But Tehran's foreign ministry quickly dismissed the reports as "speculative", insisting that "nothing has been finalised". So what exactly is the US-Iran war, and why should British readers care?
The current conflict began on 28 February, when the United States and Israel launched wide-ranging strikes on Iran. Iran responded by attacking Israel and US-allied Gulf states, and – most consequentially – effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which a huge proportion of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas travels. Since then, despite a ceasefire in April, the two sides have exchanged intermittent fire, including two rounds of tit-for-tat strikes in mid-June. Iran has also demanded that any deal to end the war must also cover Lebanon, where Israeli strikes have killed at least 17 people in a single day, complicating negotiations.
“An explainer on the US-Iran conflict, its origins, key players, and impact on the UK.”
This war did not emerge from nowhere. Tensions between the US and Iran have simmered for decades, but escalated sharply after Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) in 2018. The US has long insisted that Iran must give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium – which it is thought still to possess after American air strikes in a 12-day war in 2025 – and dismantle its enrichment infrastructure. Iran, for its part, demands relief from sanctions and the release of frozen assets before any final agreement. Trump has promised a deal with Iran more than 40 times since the conflict began, calling himself the "president of peace". Yet each time a breakthrough seems near, hardline positions on both sides stall negotiations.
For UK readers, this war is not a distant conflict. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed up global oil prices, which directly affects the cost of petrol, diesel, and household energy bills. The UK Defence Secretary, John Healey, resigned in protest over funding for the armed forces, a sign that the government is preparing for a more unstable world. The UK has also seen the resignation of Armed Forces Minister Al Carns amid a wider crisis over military spending. Meanwhile, UN human rights chief Volker Türk has sent a team of investigators to Lebanon, at the request of the Lebanese government, to look into possible human rights violations by all sides since March – evidence that could be used in prosecutions for war crimes.
Q: Why did the US attack Iran? The stated goal of the US campaign, called Operation Epic Fury, is to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. Trump says any deal must include "the removal of enriched material, the dismantling of enrichment infrastructure, limits on missile production, and the cessation of Iran's support for its terrorist proxies in the region". Iran has consistently denied seeking a nuclear bomb.
Q: What is the Strait of Hormuz and why does it matter? The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow channel between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, through which about a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas passes. When Iran closed it to all vessels, it sent shockwaves through global energy markets. Trump has promised to reopen it as soon as a deal is signed.
Q: Has a peace deal been reached? No. Despite Trump's claims that an agreement is close, Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei called the reports "speculative" and said "nothing has been finalised". He added that while most of the text of a memorandum has been "finalised", the US has made "excessive demands" and added "new requests". Iran has vowed not to depart from its "red lines".
What happens next? Trump says a signing could take place in Europe "pretty quickly" once the documents are finalised. Israel, while not a party to the memorandum, has expressed support for a deal that meets its conditions. But with Iran publicly denying any agreement, the situation remains highly volatile. The US naval blockade of Iranian ports will stay in force until a deal is signed. If talks collapse, Trump has not ruled out seizing Iran's main oil terminal, Kharg Island, a move that would represent a major escalation.