The United States and Iran have been locked in a conflict that began with US and Israeli strikes across Iran on 28 February, and has since expanded to include attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway for global oil supplies. A potential peace deal—brokered by Pakistan—has been described as 'closer than ever', but its details remain disputed and its signing has been delayed.
At its core, the conflict involves the US, Israel, and Iran, with Iran's proxy militia Hezbollah also engaged in fighting with Israel in Lebanon. The war started when US and Israeli forces struck Iran, prompting Iran to attack Israel and US-allied Gulf states, and to effectively close the Strait of Hormuz to shipping. The strait is a narrow passage through which a large share of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas travels. Since then, the US and Iran have exchanged intermittent fire, including two rounds of tit-for-tat strikes this week, even as peace talks have progressed.
“Explains the US-Iran war, peace deal, Strait of Hormuz, and implications for UK”
The background to the crisis includes long-standing tensions over Iran's nuclear program. The US and Israel fear Iran could develop nuclear weapons; Iran insists its nuclear activities are for peaceful purposes. The April ceasefire did not hold, and the situation escalated into the current war. Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has been acting as mediator, and on 28–29 June, he announced that a 'final text' of a peace deal had been reached—a memorandum of understanding (MOU) that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lift the US blockade of Iranian ports, and require Iran to destroy its highly enriched uranium on site and then have it removed from the country. Iran's foreign minister, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, said the deal includes ending the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, though US officials have previously indicated Lebanon may not be part of the agreement. The deal also envisages talks on Iran's nuclear program to begin 60 days after the initial signing.
For UK readers, this conflict matters because the closure of the Strait of Hormuz threatens global energy supplies, pushing up oil and gas prices that directly affect household bills and the broader economy. The UK is also a close ally of the US and has been involved in previous diplomatic efforts. Instability in the Middle East can lead to increased security threats and refugee flows. Additionally, any resolution—or failure to resolve—the conflict will influence the UK's foreign policy and its relationships with both the US and European partners.
Q: Why is the Strait of Hormuz so important? The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which a significant portion of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas is shipped. Its closure during the war has disrupted global energy markets, causing price spikes and economic uncertainty.
Q: What role is Pakistan playing in the peace talks? Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has been mediating between the US and Iran. He has announced on social media that a 'final text' for a peace deal has been reached, and Pakistan is preparing for an electronic signing of the memorandum of understanding, to be followed by technical-level talks.
Q: What are the main sticking points in the deal? Disagreements persist over the inclusion of a ceasefire in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah, the timeline for negotiations on Iran's nuclear program, and the exact terms of the MOU. US President Donald Trump has accused Iran of leaking inaccurate details, and Iran's foreign ministry has cautioned that signing may be delayed due to 'hesitation' from the other side.
What happens next is uncertain. The electronic signing of the Islamabad memorandum was expected within 24 hours of 29 June but was then postponed. Iran's foreign ministry said the possibility of signing in the coming days could not be ruled out. Meanwhile, the funeral for Iran's late supreme leader Ali Khamenei is set for 4 July, with burial on 9 July, which may divert attention. US President Donald Trump is reportedly eager to secure a deal before the G7 summit on Monday. Fighting continues in southern Lebanon, and the US military has downed Iranian attack drones attempting to strike commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The coming days will determine whether the peace deal is finalised or the conflict escalates further.