The 2026 World Cup has already delivered its first major upset — and almost nobody saw it coming. European champions Spain were widely expected to beat Cape Verde in their opening Group H match, but the game ended in a draw, a result predicted by only 61 of more than 37,000 users playing the BBC's predictor game. Just 67 others went for a Cape Verde victory. The shock left BBC Sport prediction expert Chris Sutton, AI and 99.65% of players wrongfooted. "There have already been plenty of shocks at this World Cup but one in particular caught almost everyone out," wrote BBC Sport journalist Chris Bevan.
Sutton, who is predicting the outcome of all 104 games, had a reasonable first round — he correctly guessed 12 of the 24 opening group games. AI, generated using Microsoft Copilot Chat, managed 13 correct predictions, while the crowd outdid both with 14. Now the second round of group matches is underway, with Sutton turning his attention to the first match of the day: Czech Republic against South Africa in Atlanta.
“Only 61 of 37,000 predictor users correctly forecast Cape Verde's draw with Spain in a World Cup shock.”
Sutton admitted he left his prediction late, making it just before kick-off. Having watched South Africa's opening defeat to Mexico, he was unimpressed. "There was a lack of quality and a lack of attacking threat — after 16 years away from the World Cup, I expected a bit more 'oomph'," he said. The Czech Republic lost to South Korea but Sutton expects them to push forward this time. "I'm going for the Czechs to edge it," he added.
The second match of the day pits Mexico against South Korea in Guadalajara. Sutton was impressed by Mexico's attacking display against South Africa, singling out Julian Quinones as a real threat. "I can see this being tight, because South Korea are well organised and have their attacking strength too, but I am going to go for another Mexico win," he said.
Sutton's pre-tournament picks for Group A had South Korea as winners and Mexico as runners-up, with Czech Republic third and South Africa fourth — a prediction that already looks shaky. Meanwhile, the second round continues with Scotland facing Morocco and England taking on Ghana, matches that will shape the knockout stage. The AI and player predictions for those games are yet to come, but the first group of second-round fixtures have already set the tone for another unpredictable day at the World Cup.