When Spain and Argentina meet in Sunday's World Cup final at New York New Jersey Stadium, the only thing on the players' minds will be lifting the trophy. Yet the result could prove pivotal beyond crowning the world champions – it might effectively decide who wins the 2026 Ballon d'Or.
In one of the tightest races in history, the decisive moment may not have happened yet. History shows that winning a major international tournament or the Champions League is almost a prerequisite: only four of the past 19 Ballon d'Or wins have gone to a player who did not triumph in the Uefa Champions League, World Cup, European Championship or Copa America in the same year. Lionel Messi accounts for three of those (2010, 2012, 2019) and Cristiano Ronaldo the other (2013).
“World Cup final between Spain and Argentina could decide 2026 Ballon d'Or, with Messi and Yamal as key contenders.”
That means the odds are stacked against goalscoring giants Harry Kane, Erling Haaland and Kylian Mbappé, as well as Michael Olise, Declan Rice and Jude Bellingham – none of whom lifted a major continental or international trophy this year. Ousmane Dembélé took the 2025 prize after winning the Champions League with Paris St-Germain; a successful defence this year keeps Dembélé and team-mate Khvicha Kvaratskhelia in the conversation.
Which brings us to the World Cup final, where two candidates go head to head. Messi, at 39, is looking to win a record-extending ninth Ballon d'Or, while 19-year-old Lamine Yamal hopes to better his second-place finish in 2025. Messi has guided Argentina to a second successive World Cup final, with eight goals and four assists, narrowly leading the Golden Boot race. Yamal, meanwhile, is aiming to claim the award for the first time.
We are now into what might be the fifth and surely final iteration of Messi, but somehow the Argentine genius is still producing extraordinary performances – almost as if it is 2011 and he is still conquering Europe with Pep Guardiola's Barcelona. While the level of opposition in Major League Soccer has to be considered when contextualising his prolific club stats for Inter Miami, Messi's World Cup exploits leave little doubt he is still among the very best.
For Yamal, the final offers a chance to leapfrog the veteran on the biggest stage. The winner of Sunday's match may not only be crowned world champion but also take a decisive step towards football's most prestigious individual honour.
