The expanded World Cup format faced its first real test this week as a 0-0 draw highlighted the very flaw Fifa had hoped to avoid – teams playing for a result that suits both. The match, the first of two group games where both sides could progress with a draw, ended goalless, allowing each to secure a place in the last 32 without jeopardy.
That lack of peril has been a recurring theme. With 48 teams now competing, the tournament expanded from 32, meaning eight groups of four became 12 groups of four. The top two from each group still qualify, but now the eight best third-placed teams also advance to create a symmetrical knockout stage of 32. The maths may work, but the drama has suffered.
“A 0-0 draw at the World Cup highlights flaw in 48-team format as Norway and France prepare for group decider without Erling Haaland.”
“The World Cup has, so far, lacked an element of real jeopardy in the group stage,” noted a BBC Sport football issues correspondent. While South Korea’s shock 1-0 defeat by South Africa on Wednesday sent Bafana Bafana through for the first time, South Korea are still very likely to reach the last 32 as one of the best third-placed teams. Under the old format, they would already be on the plane home.
Elsewhere, Ecuador stunned Germany 2-1 to reach the Round of 32, a result that severely dented Scotland’s hopes. The Tartan Army now have just a 5.6% chance of progressing, down from 42%, after relying on other results. The Netherlands beat Tunisia 3-1 to top their group, while the United States lost 3-2 to Turkiye but still finished top of theirs.
Friday evening’s action sees a mouth-watering group I decider between Norway and France at the Boston Stadium. Both teams sit on six points, and a win would put Norway top. Yet the biggest talking point before kick-off is the decision to rest Erling Haaland. The Norway striker is not in the starting XI, with Real Madrid’s Kylian Mbappe leading the French attack.
The format’s critics point out that three-team groups were originally proposed but abandoned due to fears of collusion – a lesson from the 1982 scandal when West Germany and Austria played out a convenient 1-0 win that eliminated Algeria. Now, with four-team groups but third-placed qualifiers, Fifa has inadvertently created new scenarios where teams can play for specific results. The convenient 0-0 draw this week may not be the last.