Eight teams already know their World Cup fate after only two games – and there is nothing left to play for. Argentina have six points, have beaten both Austria and Algeria, and cannot be overtaken in Group J. Jordan, on zero points after losing to the same two teams, are eliminated. Under the head-to-head tiebreaker that this World Cup introduced for the first time, a side can either win the group or be out after two fixtures. If goal difference were still the primary decider, every team would have something on the line going into the third matchday.
The change is just one of two that have reshaped the closing days of the group stage. For the first time since 1994, a third-placed table will determine the eight best runners-up who advance to the round of 32. Because there are 12 groups, the final round of matches takes five days to complete. That means Scotland, who face Brazil on Wednesday at 23:00 BST, will have no idea what points threshold will be required to go through – while teams playing on Saturday or Sunday will likely know exactly what they need.
“Eight teams already out or through after two games as head-to-head tiebreaker and third-placed table reshape World Cup group stage.”
England, meanwhile, kicked off their campaign with a 4-2 win over Croatia in Group L. Up next is Ghana at 9pm BST tonight, before a final group match against Panama on Saturday at 10pm. A second straight win would seal a place in the last 32. If they top the group, they will travel to Atlanta on July 1 to face one of the best third-placed teams from Groups E, H, I, J or K – potential opponents include Ecuador, Cape Verde, Algeria or Portugal. Finishing runners-up would send Thomas Tuchel’s side to Toronto on July 2 to face the second-placed team from Group K, currently the DR Congo. If England win their round of 32 tie as group winners, they are projected to meet Mexico in Mexico City in the round of 16.
The head-to-head rule – already used by Uefa in all its competitions – aims to filter out the distorting effect of big scorelines. But at a 48-team World Cup where only 16 are eliminated in the group stage, the jeopardy has undoubtedly diminished. As the second round of matches concludes, the final week of the group stage is going to feel very different.