South Korea’s 1-0 defeat by South Africa on Wednesday sent Bafana Bafana into the knockout stage for the first time, but the real shock was not the result itself – it was that the losers are still very likely to reach the last 32. With a record of three points and a goal difference of -1, they are probably already through as one of the eight best third-placed teams. At the 2022 World Cup, when only the top two in each group qualified, South Korea would have been on the plane home.
The addition of third‑placed qualifiers is a necessary feature of the new 48‑team format – used to ensure 32 teams reach the knockout rounds – but it has created a tournament that, so far, lacks any real jeopardy. It is now harder to be knocked out than to progress, and two matches in particular this week will be a real test of the system.
“South Korea likely to reach last 32 despite defeat, exposing lack of jeopardy in 48-team format.”
Expanding the World Cup to 48 teams always presented one obvious problem: it is an imperfect number for a tournament. With 32 teams the maths was simple: eight groups of four, top two advance. Adding another 16 nations forced Fifa to find a way to reach a symmetrical knockout stage. The original plan was 16 groups of three, with the top two going through. But that created an even bigger flaw: the final match in each group would play at a different time, meaning teams could know exactly what result they needed – and collusion became a genuine risk.
Fifa knew all about alleged collusion from the scandal at the 1982 World Cup. Back then, West Germany faced Austria in the standalone last game of their group. A slender win for the Germans would send both teams through at the expense of Algeria. The match finished 1-0 to West Germany. Algeria went out. That scandal prompted Fifa to change the format so all final group fixtures would be played simultaneously.
But with three‑team groups that solution was impossible. The climax to the group stage in Qatar was so exciting that Fifa had a rethink. It accepted there must be 12 four‑team groups, with two matches played at the same time to determine who would qualify. Except for one crucial difference: eight of the third‑placed teams must now go through for there to be 32 teams in the knockout rounds. The jeopardy that made the last World Cup so gripping has been removed.
One issue becomes clear: when two teams in the final round of group games can simply play out a draw to qualify – or to pick their opponents – the tournament has lost its sharp edge. South Korea may yet march on, but the question remains whether the 48‑team experiment has dulled the very drama that makes the World Cup unique.