The 2026 World Cup has already produced one of its greatest shocks — and almost nobody saw it coming. European champions Spain were expected to sweep aside Cape Verde in their opening Group H fixture, but the game ended in a draw, catching out 99.65% of the 37,000 users who played the BBC's new predictor game. From that vast crowd, only 61 correctly guessed the stalemate, while just 67 plumped for a Cape Verde victory.
BBC Sport predictions expert Chris Sutton was among those who got it wrong. After the first round of 24 group games, Sutton correctly predicted the outcome of 12 matches, while an AI tool using Microsoft Copilot Chat managed 13 and the general public got 14 right. Now the second set of group games is under way, and Sutton has turned his attention to Group A, where both sides lost their openers and desperately need a result.
“Only 61 of 37,000 BBC predictor users correctly foresaw Spain's shock draw with Cape Verde at the 2026 World Cup.”
“I left it late to make my prediction for this game — I only made it just before it kicked off,” Sutton said of the Czech Republic versus South Africa match in Atlanta on Thursday. He had watched South Africa’s defeat to Mexico and was unimpressed. “There was a lack of quality and a lack of attacking threat — after 16 years away from the World Cup, I expected a bit more ‘oomph’.”
The Czech Republic, he noted, “sat back for long periods against South Korea” in their opening loss, but he expects them to attack more this time. “Both sides lost their opening games in Group A so they really need something here. I’m going for the Czechs to edge it.”
Sutton’s pre-tournament forecast had South Korea winning the group and Mexico finishing second, with the Czech Republic third and South Africa bottom. But as the Spain-Cape Verde result showed, predictions can be wrecked in an instant. The second round of group games began in Atlanta on Thursday, with 104 matches still to play before the final. Only time will tell if Sutton, the AI, or the fans will come out on top — but after that Cape Verde draw, nothing feels certain.