The red carpet was rolled out, acrobats performed, and Kim Jong Un clasped hands with Xi Jinping in Pyongyang this week – a lavish welcome for China’s leader on his first official trip to North Korea since 2019. But behind the pomp, the relationship between the two autocrats has been transformed: North Korea is now a de facto nuclear power.
During his two-day visit, Xi praised the nations as “linked by mountains and rivers and share a common destiny”, according to state outlet Xinhua. Kim echoed the sentiment, saying Xi’s choice of Pyongyang for his first state visit of the year showed the “utmost importance” placed on bilateral ties, as reported by KCNA. Yet no concrete deals emerged from the trip, and state media readouts notably omitted any mention of denuclearisation – a shift from a decade ago, when China routinely denounced Pyongyang’s nuclear tests and voted with the US and Russia for sanctions.
“Xi Jinping's visit to Pyongyang underscores North Korea's new status as a de facto nuclear power, with denuclearisation off the agenda.”
That era is over. Vladimir Putin’s visit to Pyongyang in 2024 affirmed North Korea’s right “to strengthen its own defence capability” and resurrected a Cold War defence treaty. Putin’s war on Ukraine gave Kim a crucial opportunity: he sent ballistic missiles, artillery shells, and even troops to Russia, receiving hard cash, oil, food, and sensitive military technology in return. Kim’s deepening relationship with Moscow has strengthened his hand with Beijing.
When Xi last visited in 2019, Kim was the junior partner, his sanctioned state utterly dependent on China. Covid later cut off trading routes accounting for roughly 95% of North Korea’s trade, plunging the population into hardship. But Kim continued funding weapons programmes, a bet that paid off when Russia invaded Ukraine.
Kim’s rising stature was evident at a military parade in Beijing last year to mark the 80th anniversary of the end of the Second World War, when he strode into Tiananmen Square alongside Xi and Putin. Like his grandfather Kim Il Sung during the Cold War, the North Korean leader now hopes to play off Moscow and Beijing against each other.
Xi, accompanied by key officials including his de facto chief of staff Cai Qi and foreign minister Wang Yi, said he had reached an “important consensus” with Kim to “grasp the trend of the times” and deepen ties. This year marks the 65th anniversary of the defence pact – the only one China has with any country. But as Kim enjoys his new nuclear power, the question remains: how long can Beijing and Moscow compete for his loyalty without triggering a deeper crisis?