The 2026 World Cup will kick off on Thursday night with the United States, its main host, at war with a participant – Iran – whose team must commute in on match days from another country. It is a tournament like no other, navigating what BBC economics editor Faisal Islam calls a “geopolitical high-wire act” that reveals as much about the global economy as the beautiful game.
Add to that the astonishing coincidence of the three co-hosts – the US, Canada and Mexico – being in the midst of an epic trade war. In the period between the opening ceremony at the Estadio Azteca and the final at New Jersey’s MetLife Stadium, the three will be renegotiating the USMCA, the North American free trade area.
“2026 World Cup opens with host US at war with Iran, co-hosts in trade war, and fans squeezed by inflated prices.”
Donald Trump, back in the White House since last year, is “extremely focused” on the tournament, its sponsors and the impact of his return. The US president has joked that his loss to Joe Biden in the 2020 election had the great benefit of allowing him to return for this World Cup and the Los Angeles Olympics in 2028. After renewed hostilities between Tehran and Tel Aviv, Trump was direct in calling for an end to attacks. As the minutes ticked down towards kick-off, he appeared to call off new air strikes and seemingly promised that a deal to end the war was close at hand – though earlier that day he had vowed to hit Iran “very hard”. As ever with Trump, much can change very quickly.
He has already controversially accepted a Peace Prize from FIFA before initiating the war with Iran, which has led to a significant global energy and economic shock. There is even a chance the US and Iran could play each other in the knockout stage on the weekend of the US’s 250th independence celebrations.
Gianni Infantino, president of FIFA, has previously called for ceasefires during World Cups. If the tournament helps quicken the pace of de-escalation, there could be a material impact on energy prices, supplies and the world economy. But whether the World Cup can actually influence the world’s major economic conflict is unknown.
What is happening right in front of football fans, though, is a complete shakedown of football’s economics. “Football is nothing without the fans,” the late Scotland manager Jock Stein once said. Yet some fans at the globe’s biggest party will have paid previously unheard-of amounts for what may turn out to be dead rubber games, and forking out roughly the normal ticket price just for the commuter train to get to the stadium. Witness the New Jersey Transit train ticket – normally $12.90 return, but $100 for the tournament. This is a very different tournament economic model to what has gone before.