The 2026 World Cup kicks off on Thursday night unlike any before it – a tournament navigating a geopolitical high-wire act while squeezing fans like never before. The main host, the United States, is at war with a participant, Iran, whose team must commute in on match days from another country.
Add to that the astonishing coincidence of the three co-hosts – the US, Canada and Mexico – being in the midst of an epic trade war. In the period between the opening ceremony at the Estadio Azteca and the final at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey, they will be renegotiating the USMCA, the North American free trade area.
“The 2026 World Cup kicks off amid a trade war and US-Iran conflict, with fans facing unprecedented ticket and transport costs.”
Donald Trump, back in the White House last year, is extremely focused on the tournament, its sponsors and its impact. He has joked that his loss to Joe Biden in the 2020 election had the great benefit of allowing him to return for this World Cup and the Los Angeles Olympics in 2028. After renewed hostilities between Tehran and Tel Aviv, Trump was direct in calling for an end to attacks. As the minutes ticked down towards kick-off, he appeared to call off new air strikes and seemingly promised a deal to end the war was close – though earlier he had vowed to hit Iran "very hard". As ever with Trump, much can change quickly.
He has already controversially accepted a Peace Prize from FIFA, before initiating the war with Iran that has led to a significant global energy and economic shock. There is even a chance the US and Iran could play each other in the knockout stage on the weekend of the US' 250th independence celebrations.
Gianni Infantino, president of FIFA, has previously called for ceasefires during World Cups. If the tournament helps quicken de-escalation, there could be a material impact on energy prices, supplies and the world economy.
But another economic jigsaw is visible to football fans worldwide: a complete shakedown of football's economics. "Football is nothing without the fans," the legendary late Scotland manager Jock Stein once said. Yet some fans at the globe's biggest party will pay previously unheard-of amounts for what may be dead rubber games, while forking out roughly the normal ticket price just for the commuter train to the stadium. The New Jersey Transit train ticket – normally $12.90 return – costs $100 for the tournament. The fans are being squeezed like never before because this is a very different tournament economic model.