Voters in Aberdeen South will head to the polls on Thursday 18 June in a by-election that pits the future of the North Sea energy industry against the gritty realities of life on dry land. The constituency, held by the SNP's Stephen Flynn since 2019, became vacant after he took up a seat as an MSP last month.
Flynn won the seat in the 2024 general election with 32.8% of the vote, ahead of Labour and the Conservatives. Now seven candidates are vying to replace him in a contest that is one of three UK by-elections on the same day, alongside Arbroath and Broughty Ferry and the high-profile Makerfield race, where former Labour MP Andy Burnham is attempting to return to Westminster.
“Seven candidates compete in Aberdeen South by-election as voters grapple with oil decline, housing scandal, and port hopes.”
But in Aberdeen South, the campaign has been dominated by two issues: the collapse of oil and gas activity and the discovery that homes in the Torry area were built with a potentially dangerous material. Torry, a working-class neighbourhood near the harbour, is still dealing with the fallout from that revelation.
Just a short distance away, £420m has been poured into the South Harbour development at the Port of Aberdeen. The investment has allowed large cruise ships to dock in the Granite City, but the port has been hit by the downturn in North Sea oil and gas. Bob Sanguinetti, the port's chief executive, said South Harbour has yet to reach its full potential. He wants the new MP to fight for a "robust and holistic energy strategy".
"We could increase the number of jobs in the region by 9,000, but we need that all-inclusive energy strategy to work right the way across from oil and gas all the way to renewables," Sanguinetti told BBC Scotland News. He pointed to a 15-20% drop in oil and gas activity last year, while offshore wind remains "over the horizon" and unlikely to deliver jobs at scale for years. "We've got the challenge of trying to pull those two together and what we're seeing is significant job losses in the region."
Oil and gas production in the North Sea has been in decline for more than 25 years since peaking in 1999. An energy profits levy, or windfall tax, was introduced in 2022, and the industry says thousands of jobs have been lost as a result. Many new roles in renewables have been created outside the north-east, in cities such as Glasgow and Edinburgh.
The by-election will test whether voters in a constituency hard-wired to the offshore energy industry believe that a just transition is possible — or whether the promises of a green future have already left them behind.