On a Thursday night in June 2026, voters in Aberdeen South did something that hadn’t been seen in more than half a century: they elected a Scottish Conservative to Westminster in a by-election. The candidate, Douglas Lumsden, took the seat from the SNP with a majority of 6,000 and nearly half the vote – and the result was immediately cast as a referendum on the future of the North Sea oil and gas industry.
By-elections are single-seat elections held between general elections, usually triggered when a sitting MP resigns or dies. In this case, the SNP’s Stephen Flynn resigned after being elected to the Scottish Parliament. That forced a contest in a constituency that sits at the heart of the UK's energy debate. The Scottish Conservatives had not won a Westminster by-election since 1973. But Lumsden, a former oil and gas worker, campaigned on a simple message: “the destruction of the oil and gas industry must stop now”. His victory, with almost 50% of the vote, was described by Scottish Tory leader Russell Findlay as “a referendum on oil and gas”. Labour came fourth, behind Reform, winning just 5.4% of the vote.
“An explainer on the Aberdeen South by-election and its significance for UK oil and gas policy and net-zero transition.”
The result was a blow to the SNP, which had held the seat since 2019, and to First Minister John Swinney. Swinney acknowledged the “understandable anger” in Aberdeen about oil and gas issues. The industry has faced a windfall tax – the Energy Profits Levy – which means operators pay 78% of their profits to the Treasury. Companies say that, combined with tougher regulation, has led to falling investment and job losses that could reach 1,000 a month by 2030. Meanwhile, the UK government under Labour has pushed ahead with net-zero policies championed by Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, and chosen Aberdeen as the home of GB Energy, a new publicly-owned energy company. But many in the city remain sceptical.
Why does this matter for readers across the UK? The by-election is a vivid snapshot of the tension between the government's net-zero ambitions and the economic reality of communities built on fossil fuels. Aberdeen is not unique: from the North Sea to the Welsh valleys, the transition to clean energy will reshape entire regions. The result also has national political implications. Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch used the win to argue that the party is “earning the trust of the country again”. The by-election came on the same night as the Makerfield by-election, where Labour’s Andy Burnham won with 55% – a result that could position him to challenge Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer. Badenoch contrasted the two, saying Makerfield was about “one man’s job” while Aberdeen South was about “thousands of jobs all over the country but especially in the oil and gas sector”.
Q: What is a by-election? A by-election is a special election held to fill a single seat in the House of Commons when the sitting MP resigns, dies, or is otherwise unable to serve. In Scotland, these can be triggered when an MP is elected to the Scottish Parliament and must choose one role. The Scottish Conservatives’ win in Aberdeen South was their first Westminster by-election victory since 1973.
Q: Why is Aberdeen South important for oil and gas policy? Aberdeen is the UK’s oil and gas capital, home to much of the North Sea industry. The by-election became a local referendum on the sector’s future, with voters angry about high taxes (the Energy Profits Levy) and job losses. The result sent a message to both the UK Labour government and the SNP government in Holyrood that constituents want the industry protected, not phased out.
Q: What is the Energy Profits Levy? The Energy Profits Levy is a windfall tax on oil and gas company profits, introduced by the UK government. It currently takes 78% of profits from operators. The industry argues it discourages investment and leads to job cuts. The SNP and Conservatives both want it scrapped or reduced, while Labour defends it as necessary to fund green energy projects.
What happens next? Douglas Lumsden will resign his Holyrood seat (since a ban on dual mandates prevents him from sitting in both parliaments), triggering another by-election for the Scottish Parliament. The UK government faces continued pressure from Aberdeen politicians and industry bodies to ease the tax burden. Meanwhile, GB Energy – based in the city – is expected to announce its first major projects. The deeper question remains: how can the UK pursue net-zero without alienating the workers and communities that built its energy industry? The answer in Aberdeen may shape national policy for years to come.