When Douglas Lumsden, a former oil and gas worker, won the Aberdeen South by-election for the Scottish Conservatives on 5 June 2026, he secured a majority of 6,000 and almost 50 per cent of the vote – flipping a seat that the SNP had held with a majority of nearly 4,000 just two years earlier. It was the party's first by-election win in Scotland since 1973, and both Lumsden and Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch immediately declared it a "referendum on oil and gas".
The by-election was triggered when the SNP's Stephen Flynn, who had held the seat since 2019, resigned from the House of Commons after being elected to the Scottish Parliament the previous month. Flynn is now Economy Secretary in John Swinney's government. The race quickly became a proxy battle over the future of the North Sea oil and gas industry, which dominates the local economy. Lumsden's campaign focused on cutting what he called "crushing taxes and tough regulations" that have led to job losses and reduced investment. Labour, which has pushed ahead with net zero policies under Ed Miliband, came a distant fourth with just 5.4 per cent of the vote, behind Reform on 8.5 per cent. The SNP's Lara Bird did hold the Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-election on the same day, but that offered little comfort.
“Why the Aberdeen South by-election was a referendum on oil and gas and what it means for UK energy policy.”
Aberdeen has long been the heart of the UK's oil and gas sector. But the industry has faced mounting pressure from the net zero transition, with Labour's Energy Profits Levy taxing operators at 78 per cent of their profits. The levy, introduced in 2022 and extended by Labour, was originally meant to capture windfall profits during high energy prices, but the industry now argues it is stifling investment and accelerating decline. The SNP has been conflicted: First Minister John Swinney said he understood the anger and urged Labour to scrap the levy, while Flynn – who previously represented the constituency – acknowledged the result as "a tough night" that some in the party would "need to reflect on, quite heavily". The Conservatives, by contrast, offered a clear pro-oil-and-gas message, with Badenoch framing the result as a warning about national and energy security.
For UK readers beyond Aberdeen, this by-election matters because it shows how the net zero debate is playing out at the ballot box. The Conservatives used the contest to argue that the public is rejecting a too-rapid green transition that ignores jobs and energy affordability. Badenoch said the result was "about thousands of jobs all over the country but especially in the oil and gas sector" and claimed it sent a message that the sector "will not be ignored". The defeat is also an embarrassment for Swinney's government, which has already been overshadowed by the scandal surrounding Peter Murrell, the estranged husband of Nicola Sturgeon, who pleaded guilty to stealing £400,000 from the SNP. Meanwhile, Labour's poor showing – in a seat it had held as recently as 2015 – raises questions about whether its climate agenda is alienating voters in industrial regions.
Q: Why did the Conservatives win in Aberdeen South? Lumsden's campaign tapped into local anger over the decline of the oil and gas industry, which he blamed on SNP indecision and Labour's high taxes and regulations. The Tories offered a clear pro-industry message, while Labour focused on net zero and the SNP was seen as conflicted. Almost 50 per cent of voters backed the Conservatives, up from 32.8 per cent in 2024.
Q: What is the Energy Profits Levy? It is a tax on oil and gas companies introduced by the UK government in 2022, initially as a temporary windfall tax. Labour extended it, and it now requires operators to pay 78 per cent of their profits to the Treasury. The industry says this is discouraging investment and leading to job losses – claims that the government disputes but which were central to the by-election campaign.
Q: How does this affect the UK's net zero goals? The result puts pressure on both Labour and the SNP to reconsider their approach to the energy transition. The Tories argue that the public wants a slower, more gradual shift that protects domestic oil and gas production. But Labour is still committed to its net zero agenda, and the UK's climate targets remain legally binding. The tension between local jobs and global climate goals is likely to intensify.
What happens next is uncertain. The SNP's Swinney has said he understands why his party lost and is urging Labour to scrap the Energy Profits Levy. Flynn, now Economy Secretary, signalled that the party needs to "get things right" in the region. But with the Conservatives newly energised and Labour weakened, the debate over North Sea oil and gas – and the cost of net zero – is far from over.