Keir Starmer will face PMQs for the first time since he announced his resignation on Monday – but the real drama is already unfolding behind the scenes as his almost-certain successor, Andy Burnham, rushes to build his top team.
Burnham, who was sworn into the Commons only on Monday, is spending this week meeting Labour MPs to “win their confidence” as their next prime minister, former deputy leader Harriet Harman has revealed. Starmer’s office said it would grant Burnham formal access talks with the civil service as soon as possible to begin discussing his programme for government.
“Andy Burnham, likely next PM, lines up James Purnell as chief of staff and faces crucial chancellor choice.”
The likely next PM has already chosen one of his oldest political allies as his Downing Street chief of staff: James Purnell, the former Blair minister who preceded Burnham as culture secretary. Purnell, who left parliament in 2010 after a failed attempt to topple Gordon Brown, later joined the BBC as director of strategy before becoming chief executive of lobbying firm Flint Global in 2024. His financial interests in Flint will likely need assessing under standard conflict-of-interest rules. In his 2024 book Head North, Burnham described Purnell as “one of the clearest political thinkers I have ever met” and thanked him “for believing in me and seeing things others didn’t.” The appointment is at an advanced stage, with two people with knowledge of the plan telling Politico it is “pretty much locked on.”
Attention is now turning to who will replace Rachel Reeves at Number 11. The bookies’ favourite is Wes Streeting, the former health secretary who threw his weight behind Burnham’s leadership bid. Economist and cross-bench peer Lord Jim O’Neill, who has been advising Burnham, warned against giving the job to those who feel “owed it for their support.” Simon French, chief economist at Panmure Liberum, called Streeting a “relatively market-friendly option” but a political risk because he might someday want to be prime minister. “Politics is what politics is. It’s a popularity contest,” French said.
Ed Miliband is second favourite. Paul Johnson, former director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said “you really don’t want people in Number 10 and Number 11 having very different views” – a nod to Miliband’s political closeness to Burnham. Nick Macpherson, former permanent secretary at the Treasury, told the Financial Times that Miliband has “the intellect, experience, and authority” to articulate a coherent strategy and gain market confidence. Yet others see Miliband as an inflation risk, blaming his net-zero drive as energy secretary for the UK’s high energy prices.
Whoever takes the job will inherit an in-tray packed with high debt, low growth, welfare reform, defence spending, and the economic fallout from the US-Israel war with Iran. Brexit, ten years on, is costing the UK, with some modelling suggesting rejoining the EU would boost GDP by £92 billion over 5–10 years. Burnham has insisted he is “not squeamish” about cutting the welfare bill but ruled out “crude” short-term cuts. Meanwhile, Germany – a close ally – is embarking on major benefit cuts while ramping up defence spending, offering a potential blueprint.
Nominations for the Labour leadership open on July 9 and close on July 15. If, as MPs widely expect, Burnham is the only candidate, he will be confirmed as prime minister on July 17.