Andy Burnham has promised the "biggest rebalancing of power our country has seen" if he becomes prime minister — but economists who have studied Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland's experience over the past quarter of a century have found no clear evidence that devolution has lifted economic growth.
In his first major policy speech on Monday, the newly sworn-in MP for Makerfield said he would strip power from Whitehall and hand it to all parts of the UK, including Greater Manchester and other English city regions, as well as extending devolution to Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and London. "We will never get growth up to the level Britain needs unless every single postcode in the land is set up to contribute to it," he declared.
“Andy Burnham pledges biggest power rebalancing, but economists find no clear growth boost from past devolution.”
BBC Verify has examined what impact further devolution could be expected to have. Scotland's parliament already holds extensive powers over health, education, local government, environment, justice and policing, as well as the ability to set most income tax rates and some welfare. The Welsh Senedd controls the NHS in Wales, education, local government and housing — it can vary income tax rates, but unlike Scotland has no justice or policing powers. The Northern Ireland Assembly, under the terms of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, is responsible for health, education and housing.
English city regions have seen some devolution over the past decade, though less extensive. Manchester, with some authority over transport, housing, skills and health spending, is among the most empowered.
Yet most economists who have studied the record across Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have not identified any significant increase in overall economic growth rates since devolution. Official statistics show that in 2023, Scotland's GDP per capita stood at around 93% of the UK average, Northern Ireland at 83% and Wales at 74% — figures broadly similar to where they were in 1998. The UK average, however, is heavily skewed by London and the South East.
Burnham's ambition is clear. Whether the history of devolution suggests it can deliver the growth he promises remains an open question.