Andy Burnham has pledged the “biggest rebalancing of power our country has seen” if he becomes prime minister – but BBC Verify’s analysis of past devolution finds no clear evidence it raises economic growth.
In his first major policy speech on Monday, the newly sworn-in MP for Makerfield said he would strip power from Whitehall and hand it to all parts of the UK, including Greater Manchester and other English city regions, while extending devolution in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland and giving Greater London more powers.
“BBC Verify finds no clear evidence past devolution boosted growth, despite Burnham's pledge to rebalance power.”
“We will never get growth up to the level Britain needs unless every single postcode in the land is set up to contribute to it,” Burnham said.
But after studying a quarter of a century of devolution, most economists have identified no significant increase in overall economic growth rates in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Official statistics show the GDP per capita of those nations relative to the UK average in 2023 was broadly the same as in 1998: Scotland at around 93%, Northern Ireland at 83% and Wales at 74%.
Scotland has extensive devolved powers, including over health, education, local government, environment, justice and policing, as well as control over most income tax rates and some welfare. The Welsh Senedd runs the NHS in Wales, education, local government and housing, and can vary income tax, but has no justice or policing powers. Northern Ireland’s assembly, created under the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, controls health, education and housing.
English city regions have seen some devolution over the past decade, though less extensive. Manchester has among the most, with authority over transport, housing, skills and health spending.
There is no clear evidence that Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland have caught up with the UK average – though analysts note that average is heavily influenced by London and the South East.
Burnham, who until recently led the Greater Manchester Combined Authority, argues that further devolution is essential for higher growth. The BBC Verify analysis suggests the historical record offers little support for that claim.