Andy Burnham’s victory in the Makerfield by-election was a defining moment for British politics – but it has left the Green Party grappling with an existential question: should it fight him head-on or wait for him to stumble? The answer could reshape the left for years to come.
Andy Burnham, the Labour MP for Makerfield, is widely expected to become the next prime minister after a decisive by-election win. His victory was so commanding that it swallowed the Green vote, leaving them on just 0.7 per cent and costing them their deposit. But for the Green Party, led by Zack Polanski, Burnham’s arrival in No 10 presents both a threat and an opportunity.
“The Green Party's internal debate over how to challenge Andy Burnham's new Labour leadership.”
The Greens are divided on how to respond. On one side are the party’s four MPs, who come from a different tradition to Polanski. They favour a cautious approach: “Let him make his own mistakes,” one source said. On the other side is Polanski and his allies, who want to be aggressive from the outset. “Burnham is essentially Labour’s last card,” a source close to Polanski said. “They’re betting everything on him succeeding but we know he’s going to disappoint voters sooner or later.”
The party’s internal debate reflects a wider challenge. Under Keir Starmer, the Greens surged to nearly 20 per cent in the polls by March. But by the end of June that figure had fallen to 13 per cent. The fear is that Burnham – a more left-wing Labour leader – could lure back voters who had lent their support to the Greens in protest at Starmer’s leadership. A senior Green pushed back against that idea: “We know that once people vote Green once, they tend to stick with us. People don’t see it as ‘lending’ us their vote.”
Polanski plans to paint Burnham as a continuity Starmerite, pointing to his appointments. He has already criticised the choice of James Purnell as Burnham’s chief of staff, and the rumoured appointment of Josh Simons to a senior No 10 role. “Sticking a new face on Labour won’t change its makeup,” a source close to Polanski said. “Starmer had a huge block of ex-lobbyists as MPs and now so does Burnham.”
The Greens performed well at the May local elections, taking councils from Labour in London and consolidating their foothold in the north-west, holding wards in Hannah Spencer’s Gorton and Denton constituency. Now the party is throwing all its resources at the Greater Manchester mayoral by-election, where polls suggest it faces a very difficult race. The party has decided to target “left-behind places” like Makerfield. Polanski – who grew up in north Manchester – has already campaigned there with the party’s candidate, Geraldine Coggins, a councillor on Trafford Council for the past eight years.
For UK readers, this matters because it reveals the fault lines in left-wing politics. Burnham’s leadership could either revitalise Labour or push disillusioned voters further towards the Greens. The outcome of the Greater Manchester mayoral by-election will be an early test of whether the Greens can hold their ground.
Q: What happened in the Makerfield by-election? Andy Burnham won the Makerfield by-election for Labour, securing a decisive victory that saw the Green Party’s vote share fall to 0.7 per cent, causing them to lose their deposit.
Q: Why are the Greens divided over how to approach Andy Burnham? The party’s MPs favour a wait-and-see approach, while leader Zack Polanski and his allies want to challenge Burnham immediately, arguing he is essentially a continuation of Starmer’s Labour and will disappoint voters.
Q: What is the Green Party’s strategy for the Greater Manchester mayoral by-election? The party is focusing its resources on the race, targeting “left-behind places” like Makerfield. Candidate Geraldine Coggins has been campaigning with Polanski, and the party plans to launch its manifesto next week.
What happens next: The Green Party is due to launch its manifesto for the Greater Manchester mayoral by-election in the coming days. Polls suggest a difficult race, but the party hopes to build on its local election gains and prove it can retain voters even under a more left-wing Labour government.