The flat-roofed Stubshaw Cross Club in Wigan is an unlikely hotseat of power. One visitor describes the 1980s-built social club as “more Phoenix Nights than Game of Thrones”. With mismatched floor tiles, cheap pints and a big screen showing World Cup games, Andy Burnham’s campaign HQ around 200 miles from Downing Street is buzzing as visiting Cabinet ministers add their signatures to the traditional by-election visitors’ poster. One name is missing: Sir Keir Starmer, who has not made good on his threat to visit the seat.
Barring surprises, by Friday Burnham, currently Mayor of Greater Manchester, will have won the Makerfield by-election and be en route to Westminster to challenge Starmer. But even before the ballot boxes have opened, the electricity of power has already rerouted up the M1. In Labour, Burnham is now the prism for every future decision, from defence spending to local buses.
“Andy Burnham is poised to win the Makerfield by-election and challenge Keir Starmer for Labour leadership.”
One Government source said they were worried about a protracted fight if Starmer digs in in the face of Burnham’s challenge, as the Prime Minister has repeatedly indicated. “The contest has to move quickly otherwise we won’t be able to run legislation. On anything contentious, people will be just waiting to hear what Andy thinks on any given subject. The illusion of power is where it is going, not where it is at. And it has shifted up North,” they said.
“Some people are doing their jobs, others are auditioning for the jobs they want,” a Labour MP remarked sniffily of their colleagues this week. “But hardly anyone is thinking about what Keir wants.”
In Makerfield there has been such a steady stream of Labour ministers, staffers and general hangers-on that longtime Burnham allies note that some animals are more equal – or perhaps helpful – than others. While grateful for leaflet-delivering manpower, some Labour MPs plugging the party line to voters are guilty of misunderstanding a local nuance, which requires simultaneously campaigning on Burnham’s Manchester record while ignoring Starmer’s in London. Burnham’s aides are said to have two spreadsheets of the campaign’s visitors: those who have been “actually helpful”, and the tourists who have just been up there to sign their name and produce content for their socials. “Loyalty is very important to Andy,” one campaigner said.
Meanwhile, Starmer is insisting to anyone who’ll listen that he can see off Burnham. “Let me be clear that this is not about personal vanity, it is not about stubbornness, it is about a very deep sense of duty,” Starmer told the BBC on Friday. But with Burnham’s victory all but assured, Westminster is holding its breath, waiting for Makerfield to deliver Andy Burnham back to Parliament – and for the battle that will follow.