The biggest gamble in modern UK politics has paid off. Andy Burnham has won the Makerfield by-election, beating Reform candidate Robert Kenyon by more than 9,000 votes, and now holds a seat in Parliament. The result was never guaranteed: when Josh Simons stepped down as the constituency MP last month to make way for the mayor of Greater Manchester, only a week had passed since Reform won big in the area's local elections. For Labour, the nightmare scenario would have been Burnham losing to Reform, proving the party's brand was so tainted that not even the country's most popular politician could save it. That did not happen – it didn't come remotely close. Burnham won thousands more votes than every other candidate combined, including the combined total of Reform and Rupert Lowe's far-right party Restore. The Labour candidate has shown there is a way back from the polling doldrums, and maybe a Reform government led by Nigel Farage isn't an inevitability. A monumental sigh of relief emanated from the counting hall in Wigan's the Edge venue and Labour HQ on Rushworth Street – perhaps even from backers of Sir Keir Starmer.
But the result represents the end of just one narrative thread. Burnham and his team will have been planning his initial moves ever since this by-election was secured. He will sit down with Starmer this weekend, and that chat will likely involve the ex-mayor gently suggesting the PM set out a timetable for his departure. Starmer has been saying for weeks that he will fight any leadership contest – but what else could he say? What if he committed to a handover… then Burnham lost? All signs point towards a stubborn PM insisting he has a five-year mandate to serve the country and a duty to provide stability. That is where Burnham's allies in the cabinet come in. Top ministers like Ed Miliband and Lisa Nandy may tell Starmer they cannot continue to serve in his government if he clings on. Things could get messy over the next week. In the meantime, the battle to replace Burnham as mayor of Greater Manchester kicks off – the first big electoral test for a Labour Party that is now widely assumed will soon be led by someone else.
“Andy Burnham won the Makerfield by-election by 9,000 votes, setting up a weekend meeting to push Starmer on a departure timetable.”