Andy Burnham could enter Downing Street as soon as 20 July, just weeks after returning to Parliament following a decade away from Westminster. The former Greater Manchester mayor is the only Labour MP standing to replace Sir Keir Starmer, who announced he was stepping down. A slew of potential rivals have stood aside and backed his bid.
In his first speech since launching his leadership campaign on 29 June in Manchester, Burnham promised the biggest-ever “rebalancing of power” away from Whitehall, branding the UK one of the “most over-centralised countries in the world”. He plans a new No 10 unit based in Manchester tasked with giving English regions more control over housing and transport, and extending devolution in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. The unit would promote “equivalent living conditions” across Britain, borrowing from the German constitution. He also wants to enable greater public control of water and energy sectors, with 10-year plans to reduce costs, citing Greater Manchester’s bus franchise model. He has advocated public ownership of Thames Water, a move already on the cards after the government objected to a proposed rescue deal for the debt-laden company in June.
“Andy Burnham becomes next PM on 20 July, facing clashes between devolution plans and global crises.”
But Burnham’s domestic agenda will clash with inescapable global pressures. He thinks Starmer spent too much time abroad and will not seek the same profile, but Starmer has pointedly suggested Burnham may not find it easy to organise his time. The first internal battle will be over whether he attends the UN General Assembly in September, which coincides with Labour Party Conference, and the UN Climate Change Cop summit in Turkey in November. “Can we afford to cede the ground to the Greens or Lib Dems on climate, particularly if we’ve just decided to drill in the North Sea?” his team will ask. They will also push for a visit to Ukraine before Christmas “lest we risk losing a leadership role”.
Anne McElvoy, executive editor at Politico, highlights a “quartet of tensions”. The first is Burnham’s “Manchesterism” vision. A North-East MP said: “Everyone’s thrilled that a southern-centric Downing Street will take the North seriously, but there are the Pennines to consider and the sense that the east of the country could come off short.” The outsourcing of Treasury functions to “Treasury North” in Darlington is not highly regarded. Treasury Permanent Secretary Lord Nick Macpherson warned: “Machinery of government changes like this are very disruptive and the new PM only has three years in which to make a difference.”
Burnham will be judged mercilessly on rapid delivery amid AI and labour shortages. Lord O’Neill, his most markets-hardened adviser, noted that “the world keeps turning” with trade opportunities and threats. The “soft left”, McElvoy argues, has a tin ear on perceptions of being indifferent to wealthy investors – a weakness of Starmer’s that Burnham must not repeat.
Can Burnham balance his devolutionary ambitions, the demands of the international stage, and the hard yards of delivery in just three years? The question hangs over his imminent premiership.
