Donald Trump has described him as the "mayor of a town" and "extremely liberal". But Andy Burnham, the new MP for Makerfield, is widely expected to become the UK's next prime minister within weeks. Already the only declared candidate to replace Sir Keir Starmer as Labour leader and prime minister, Burnham is suddenly facing intense scrutiny over how he would handle defence spending, relations with the US, and his own domestic priorities.
Andy Burnham was elected MP for Makerfield in a byelection earlier this month, defeating Reform UK. He is so far the only candidate in the race to succeed Sir Keir Starmer as Labour leader and prime minister. Before entering Parliament, he served as the mayor of Greater Manchester for nine years, and before that held ministerial and shadow ministerial roles in Labour governments. His campaign has introduced two concepts: the "Makerfield test"—a pledge that new legislation should benefit his constituency and similar areas—and now faces the "Moscow test", a term coined by former Chief of the Defence Staff Admiral Sir Tony Radakin.
“Who is Andy Burnham, the likely next UK prime minister?”
The "Moscow test" reflects the urgent defence questions Burnham would inherit. Sir Tony told the BBC that the UK's next leader must operate "almost like a wartime prime minister" and fulfil the pledge to increase defence spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035. He warned that current military capabilities are "too bare" and that falling short would create "a whole load of hurt with our Nato allies and especially our relationship with America". Defence Secretary John Healey and Armed Forces Minister Al Carns both resigned earlier this month over what they said was insufficient investment for the government's Defence Investment Plan (DIP), which is due to be published before the Nato summit in Turkey on 7 July.
For UK readers, Burnham's likely premiership matters because it would mark a shift from Sir Keir Starmer's foreign-policy-heavy agenda back towards domestic concerns. Burnham has always focused on domestic policy areas such as health and transport, and some supporters want him to continue that even amid global turmoil. But the US president's intervention underscores the challenge: like many Labour politicians, Burnham has been critical of Trump in the past, calling him a purveyor of "hateful extremist material" and saying any UK politician who gave him "the time of day should be ashamed". Yet the UK is hosting the G20 summit next year and the G7 the year after, both of which Trump would attend. Burnham will also need to navigate defence commitments, with Nato allies watching closely.
Q: Who is Andy Burnham? Andy Burnham is the Labour MP for Makerfield and the only declared candidate to replace Sir Keir Starmer as Labour leader and prime minister. He previously served as the mayor of Greater Manchester for nine years and held various ministerial roles, including health secretary.
Q: What are the Makerfield test and the Moscow test? The Makerfield test is a pledge by Burnham that new legislation must pass a test of benefiting his constituency and similar post-industrial areas. The Moscow test, coined by former military chief Sir Tony Radakin, asks whether UK defence policy looks strong to Moscow and keeps the country safe.
Q: What is Burnham's position on defence spending? Burnham has not set out his own defence plan, but the government has committed to increasing defence spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035. Sir Tony Radakin said the next prime minister must fulfil that pledge, as current capabilities are "too bare".
What happens next: Burnham is expected to be confirmed as Labour leader and prime minister in the coming weeks, barring a surprise challenger. The government must publish its Defence Investment Plan before the Nato summit on 7 July. Burnham will also have to manage relations with Donald Trump, who has already criticised him, and prepare for the UK's hosting of the G20 in 2027 and the G7 in 2028.