The biggest gamble in modern UK politics has paid off. Andy Burnham, the outgoing Mayor of Greater Manchester, won the Makerfield by-election with 54.8% of the vote, beating Reform UK's candidate by more than 9,000 votes. The result, declared just after 3am at a venue across the canal from Wigan Pier, clears the way for Burnham's return to Westminster and positions him as the leading challenger to Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership.
Burnham, a former transport secretary under Gordon Brown, has been out of Parliament since 2017 when he became Mayor. He needed a Commons seat to mount a credible leadership bid. Makerfield, which had been a safe Labour seat since its creation, was vacated for him by MP Josh Simons, who stepped down citing selflessness. The by-election was called after local elections in May saw Reform UK win every council ward in the constituency, making Labour's victory far from certain. Burnham's campaign focused on "place first – not party first", and his personal brand proved strong enough to beat Reform's Rob Kenyon decisively.
“Andy Burnham's Makerfield win paves his way to Labour leader and PM.”
The background to this moment lies in Labour's dire polling and internal turmoil. Sir Keir Starmer has been Prime Minister since 2024 but has faced rebellions over welfare cuts, departing cabinet ministers, and voter disillusionment. Burnham, by contrast, has maintained high approval as Mayor, especially for his transport and policing record. His close allies – including his former adviser Joanne Lee (a dead cert for a Downing Street role), deputy mayor Bev Green, MP Kim Midgley (a potential chief whip or political secretary), MP Miatta Fahnbulleh (working on policy ideas for a Burnham government), and Josh Simons (likely candidate for a Downing Street role) – have been preparing for a leadership transition. Burnham is expected to seek the Labour leadership after this win.
For UK readers, this matters because it reshapes the political landscape. Burnham has demonstrated he can beat Reform UK, the party that has surged in working-class areas. His victory suggests there is an electoral path back for Labour, potentially changing the government's direction. If Burnham becomes Prime Minister, policies on devolution, public services, and economic growth could shift. His campaign emphasised a more radical approach, and his inner circle includes figures from Labour's soft left, which could mean a break from Starmer's centrist agenda.
Q: Who is Andy Burnham? Andy Burnham is the outgoing Mayor of Greater Manchester, a former Labour transport secretary, and now the new MP for Makerfield. He is widely expected to run for Labour leader after Sir Keir Starmer, and his victory in the by-election is seen as a launchpad for a potential prime ministerial bid.
Q: What is the Makerfield by-election and why was it important? Makerfield is a constituency in Wigan, previously safe Labour. The by-election was triggered when sitting MP Josh Simons stepped aside for Burnham. It was a high-stakes test of whether Burnham's personal popularity could reverse Labour's decline, especially after Reform UK won every council ward in the area in May 2026 local elections. Burnham's win with 54.8% and a 9,000-vote margin showed he could beat Reform.
Q: What happens next in the Labour leadership contest? Burnham will meet Sir Keir Starmer this weekend to discuss a possible transition. Allies expect an "orderly transition" with a timetable for Starmer's departure. However, Starmer has said he will fight any leadership challenge. Burnham's cabinet allies, such as Ed Miliband and Lisa Nandy, may pressure Starmer to step down. If no deal is reached, a formal leadership contest could follow.
What happens next: Burnham and his team will push for a clear handover timeline. The battle to replace him as Mayor of Greater Manchester will also begin. The next few weeks will determine whether the transition is smooth or messy, and whether Burnham can turn this by-election momentum into a leadership victory and, eventually, a path to Number 10.