Andy Burnham, who wasn't even a parliamentary candidate at the last general election, could be prime minister within weeks. The Greater Manchester mayor won a by-election in Makerfield on 19 June 2026, and within days, rivals folded, Labour MPs rallied behind him, and Sir Keir Starmer announced he would step down. If Burnham succeeds, he would be the UK's fifth prime minister in four years.
Burnham is the former Labour shadow home secretary who twice lost bids to lead his party – to Ed Miliband and Jeremy Corbyn, both of whom lost general elections. Now he is seen as a winner after defeating Reform UK in a seat where Brexit loomed large. Makerfield voted 67% Leave in 2016, and Burnham, a vocal Remainer, chose not to "re-run" old arguments during the campaign. His victory suggests that while a stable majority of the public (around 55%) now supports rejoining the EU, the issue is not front-of-mind for voters in Leave seats.
“Explains Andy Burnham's rapid rise to become the likely next UK prime minister.”
Burnham's rapid ascent raises big questions for UK politics. He inherits from Starmer three half-finished EU agreements, a postponed UK-EU summit, and a discredited political strategy. The EU summit, originally scheduled for 22 July in Brussels, was postponed after Starmer's resignation. European Council President António Costa said he hopes the new PM can "give continuity on this good path to reset our relationship with the United Kingdom." Burnham, who broke with the Remain campaign in 2016 to warn its pitch was "too much Hampstead and not enough Hull," will need to balance pro-EU sentiment among Labour MPs with the Euroscepticism of many voters.
For the UK, a Burnham premiership means a leader untested nationally. He is very popular in Greater Manchester but largely unknown elsewhere. One minister noted that Burnham "lost to two losers" – Miliband and Corbyn – raising doubts about his electoral appeal. Yet his ability to win a Leave-voting seat against Reform UK has Labour MPs scrambling to back him, with Wes Streeting endorsing him and potential rivals sidelined. The speed of this transition has left many wondering where the party is headed: "It feels like lots of Labour MPs are dashing for a train that's about to leave the station, but they haven't any idea where it's going," one MP told the BBC.
Q: Why is Andy Burnham likely to become prime minister? Because Sir Keir Starmer announced he will resign, and Burnham is the clear favourite to replace him. After winning a by-election in Makerfield, he secured endorsements from key figures like Wes Streeting, and many Labour MPs believe he can beat Reform UK.
Q: What does Burnham's win in Makerfield tell us about Brexit? Makerfield voted heavily Leave, yet Burnham – a Remainer – won by a landslide (24,927 votes to the Rejoin EU Party's 35). This suggests that while polls show majority support for rejoining, voters are focusing on other issues. Burnham deliberately avoided reopening Brexit divisions.
Q: How would Burnham handle relations with the EU? He inherits three unfinished Brexit deals and a postponed summit. As a former Remainer, he is likely to seek a reset, but must balance that with his new constituency's Euroscepticism. European leaders have expressed hope for continuity, but Burnham's exact plans are unclear.
What happens next? Burnham is expected to become Labour leader and prime minister within weeks, possibly by mid-July. He will then face immediate decisions: whether to keep Rachel Reeves as chancellor (many doubt he will), how to approach the postponed EU summit, and how to prove his popularity beyond the north-west. The coming month will reveal whether his rapid rise is sustainable or a dangerous gamble.