Andy Burnham is on course to become the next prime minister of the United Kingdom within weeks, and the Labour Party is already buzzing. The Greater Manchester mayor, who returned to Parliament after a by-election victory, is the overwhelming favourite to replace Sir Keir Starmer after the outgoing leader resigned on Monday. Labour’s ruling body has set out a timetable that could see Burnham installed as party leader and prime minister by 17 July – less than a month from now – if he remains the only MP in the race.
Burnham confirmed his intention to stand shortly after Starmer stepped down. He has already secured the backing of key cabinet ministers including Chancellor Rachel Reeves, Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper, Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson and Health Secretary James Murray. Former Health Secretary Wes Streeting, who had previously said he would run, gave his support to Burnham on Monday. Senior minister Darren Jones has ruled himself out, and former Armed Forces minister Al Carns has yet to confirm a bid. It increasingly looks likely that Burnham will gather so many nominations – 81 MPs are needed by 15 July – that no other candidate can compete, leading to a coronation rather than a contest.
“Explains why Andy Burnham is poised to become Labour leader and PM, and what it means for the UK.”
Burnham’s rapid rise reflects a party desperate for a popular figure. Labour MPs describe him as “affable”, “warm” and a “good bloke”. One MP said Parliament had a “strange atmosphere all week, with people crawling over each other to try to get to him”. Another said “ministers are sweating their connections to try to get an audience”. His appeal stems partly from a rare ability to connect with voters: an ally from his time in Manchester recalled that “every conversation is important to him” – even if it made him late. In a by-election in Makerfield 10 days ago, he beat Reform UK in what one former minister called a “Russian roulette” contest, defying Labour’s lack of national popularity.
But some warn the “man of the north” image could backfire. A contact told the BBC: “He needs to drop this man of the north a bit – he’ll hack off people. It’s deeply upsetting to people from Leeds and Newcastle to think that Manchester is THE north, let alone Scotland. It’s trite.” Another former colleague said he must go from “cock of the north to national champion”.
For UK readers, the leadership change matters directly. Burnham’s premiership would begin a new political chapter, with questions about his domestic agenda – public services, economic stability, and growth – and his ability to face down Nigel Farage. Labour MPs hope he can preserve at least part of the party’s 2024 majority at the next election. However, sources also report that some Labour MPs fear a backlash from local members who want a proper leadership contest rather than a coronation.
Q: When could Andy Burnham become prime minister? If he is the only candidate to secure 81 MP nominations by 15 July, the new leader will be announced at a special Labour conference on 17 July and then appointed PM by the King. If multiple candidates proceed, a ballot of members and affiliated supporters would run from 6 to 27 August, with the result on 29 August.
Q: Why is Andy Burnham so popular within Labour? Colleagues describe him as affable, warm, and genuine – a “good bloke” who listens to voters. His by-election win in a tough seat and his record as Greater Manchester mayor have boosted his standing, making him seen as the party’s best hope to retain power against Reform and the Conservatives.
Q: Will there be a leadership contest or just a coronation? It is increasingly likely that Burnham will be the only candidate. He has already gathered backing from senior figures, and potential rivals like Darren Jones and Wes Streeting have ruled themselves out or endorsed him. If no other MP reaches the 81-nomination threshold by 15 July, the leadership is uncontested.
What happens next? The nomination period runs from 9 to 15 July for MPs, and until 16 July for affiliated bodies. If Burnham is unopposed, the special conference on 17 July will formally confirm him as leader, and he will be appointed prime minister. If other candidates emerge, a summer ballot will decide the outcome by 29 August. Meanwhile, Sir Keir Starmer remains as caretaker prime minister, insisting that the government continues its normal business.