Westminster is a postcode whose currency is power – and power is shifting, quickly. Two key moments on Monday accelerated the likelihood of one key outcome: Andy Burnham will be Britain’s fifth prime minister in four years.
Not only did Sir Keir Starmer set out a timetable for his departure, but the biggest potential rival to Burnham, Wes Streeting, folded and endorsed the former mayor of Greater Manchester. The photographs of the new MP for Makerfield beaming in the presence of hundreds of Labour MPs sit alongside images of Sir Keir and his wife, both emotional, in illustrating that brutal transfer of power.
“Andy Burnham is set to become the UK's fifth prime minister in four years after Keir Starmer set out his departure timetable.”
Chancellor Rachel Reeves was spotted at Burnham’s event – not earlier outside 11 Downing Street when staff and senior ministers applauded Starmer. Senior figures hope to retain big jobs, with some making the case for keeping Reeves at Treasury given market confidence. But others tell Chris Mason, the BBC’s political editor, it is highly unlikely he would keep her on. Streeting denied he’d been offered the job by Burnham.
A minister pointed out: “Remember he’s run for the Labour leadership twice before and lost. He lost to two losers – Ed Miliband and Jeremy Corbyn.” Miliband lost the 2015 general election; Corbyn lost 2017 and 2019. What drives Burnham’s magnetism? He is seen as a winner against Reform UK, in a part of the country where Reform did well last month. But his popularity remains largely untested beyond Greater Manchester.
Burnham’s ascent comes a decade after he broke ranks during the EU referendum to warn the Remain campaign was “too much Hampstead and not enough Hull”. Now, if he reaches No. 10, his first tasks will include fixing Britain’s relationship with the EU. Starmer leaves three half-finished agreements, a postponed summit, and a discredited political strategy.
The EU-U.K. summit, originally scheduled for July 22 in Brussels, is postponed. European Council President António Costa told reporters: “Now, for sure, we need to postpone it. My wish is that his successor could give continuity on this good path to reset our relationship with the United Kingdom.”
Burnham’s Makerfield constituency voted Leave by two to one; he made the wise decision not to “re-run” the old arguments. Two days after the by-election, the “March for Rejoin” descended on Westminster. Burnham, who got 24,927 votes in Makerfield, was not there – unlike the Rejoin EU Party’s 35 votes. A stable majority of the British public, around 55%, supports rejoining, but Burnham’s path requires caution.
“It feels like lots of Labour MPs are dashing for a train that’s about to leave the station, but they haven’t any idea where it’s going,” one MP told Mason. The hard questions for Burnham beckon: a bloke who wasn’t even an MP this time last week could be prime minister by this time next month.