Andy Burnham, the newly elected MP for Makerfield, is now widely seen as a potential future prime minister after his decisive by-election victory. With a majority larger than Labour's 2024 general election landslide in the same seat, he has positioned himself as a challenger to Sir Keir Starmer. But what does Burnham actually stand for, and what would his premiership look like?
Burnham has served as the mayor of Greater Manchester for the past decade, a role in which he cultivated a distinct political identity. He has pledged to stick to the economic rules set by Chancellor Rachel Reeves, including no increases in the main rates of income tax, VAT or National Insurance. Helen Miller of the Institute for Fiscal Studies noted that any prime minister would have "very limited scope to increase spending" within those rules without cutting elsewhere or raising other taxes.
“Explains Andy Burnham's key policies and his path to potentially becoming prime minister after his by-election win.”
One of Burnham's most prominent policies is bringing water companies "back under stronger public control." He has pointed to the Greater Manchester bus network—run by private operators but with public oversight—as a model, though he has advocated outright public ownership for companies like Thames Water. The government estimated nationalising the entire water industry would cost £100bn, though think tanks dispute that figure. Burnham has also long supported reform of social care, proposing to replace inheritance tax with a "national care levy" to make care free, with the wealthiest paying more. He has not backed away from this stance.
The broader context of Burnham's rise is the deep unpopularity of the current Labour government. His victory speech called the result "a final chance to change" for the party, and he has called for Keir Starmer to set out a timetable for his departure. Reform UK, which came second in the by-election, failed to humiliate Burnham as some polls had predicted. The Conservatives lost their deposit, while the far-right Restore Britain party scored just 7% of the vote.
For UK readers, Burnham's potential premiership matters because it would mean a shift in Labour's approach to public ownership, social care, and regional policy. His model of "stronger public control" over utilities like water and energy could affect bills and investment. His proposed national care levy would replace inheritance tax, potentially changing how social care is funded. And his focus on northern England—he is often called the "King of the North"—could mean more attention to regional inequality.
Q: What are Andy Burnham's main policy proposals? Burnham advocates bringing water and energy under stronger public control, replacing inheritance tax with a national care levy to fund free social care, and gradually renationalising rail. He has also committed to existing Labour economic rules on borrowing and tax.
Q: How did Andy Burnham win the Makerfield by-election? Burnham won 55% of the vote, with 24,937 votes, giving him a majority of 9,231 over Reform UK's Robert Kenyon. His majority was larger than Labour's in the 2024 general election in the same seat. He benefited from voters from the Greens, Liberal Democrats and Conservatives lending him their support.
Q: Could Andy Burnham really become prime minister? He is considered the most likely challenger to Sir Keir Starmer. He has called for Starmer to set an exit date, and his supporters believe he could be in Downing Street by September. However, Starmer has insisted he will stand in any leadership contest.
What happens next: Burnham is expected to resign as Greater Manchester mayor, triggering a mayoral by-election. He and his allies are pushing for Starmer to set a timetable for departure, while Starmer's team try to defer a challenge. The coming weeks will determine whether the Labour Party faces an immediate leadership contest or a longer transition.