In the final months of Sir Keir Starmer's premiership, one man has loomed larger than any political rival: Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester. On Thursday, voters in the newly created constituency of Makerfield go to the polls in a by-election that could set off a chain reaction ending with Burnham in Downing Street. If he wins, he will resign as mayor, triggering another election for that role — and then likely launch a move against Starmer. The Prime Minister has insisted he will not walk away, but a senior Labour source has already indicated that Burnham would reject any offer of a cabinet role, instead focusing on the top job. This is the story of a leadership challenge that has been brewing for months, and what it means for the UK.
Andy Burnham is the incumbent Mayor of Greater Manchester, first elected in 2017. He is widely seen as a figurehead of the Labour left and a potential future prime minister. The by-election in Makerfield — a new seat created from the old Makerfield constituency — is being contested by Burnham against Reform UK's Robert Kenyon. If Burnham wins, he must resign the mayoralty before taking up his seat in the Commons, triggering an immediate by-election for the Greater Manchester mayoralty. Reform UK is expected to contest that race energetically, hoping to win one of Labour's heartland cities. However, the government recently laid a statutory instrument changing the mayoral election system from first past the post to the supplementary vote, which could benefit Labour by allowing its candidate to pick up second preferences from Green and Liberal Democrat voters. The National Executive Committee (NEC) is reportedly considering a fast-tracked selection process, potentially shortlisting a single candidate to begin campaigning immediately after Burnham's expected win.
“Explains Andy Burnham's by-election, potential leadership challenge, and impact on Brexit reset.”
The roots of this crisis lie in Starmer's deepening unpopularity and a sense that his government lacks vision. Even by the standards of a turbulent premiership, the past weeks have been dire. Defence Secretary John Healey resigned, accusing Starmer of indecision that risked making the country less safe. Polls have consistently shown Labour trailing the Conservatives, and internal pressure has mounted. Starmer's attempt to offer Burnham a "big role in government" was swiftly rebuffed, with a senior Labour source telling the Manchester Evening News that Burnham would turn it down. For Starmer, the calculus is simple: he won the 2024 election with a five‑year mandate and believes he deserves time to fix the economy he inherited. But as one Labour MP put it, if Burnham wins Makerfield, the mayoral by-election will be "the horrible hangover after the party".
For UK readers, the outcome matters because a Burnham premiership would immediately affect the country's direction on Brexit. The government has been negotiating a reset with the EU, with a summit set for 22 July to agree deals on youth mobility, food and drink trade, and aligning carbon taxes. EU sources have indicated that Brussels will go ahead with the summit even if Starmer is replaced, but Burnham would face pressure to honour those compromises. He is a known pro‑European, but EU sources expect he will not rip up deals already reached. The same day as the by-election, official figures showed UK inflation flatlined at 2.8 per cent in May, with food price rises slowing but staples like margarine, pizza and chocolate still rising. The political uncertainty adds another layer of unpredictability for households and businesses.
Q: What is the Makerfield by-election and why is it important? The Makerfield by-election is a contest for a new parliamentary constituency in Greater Manchester, triggered by the resignation of the previous MP. It is important because Labour candidate Andy Burnham is expected to win, which would force him to resign as mayor and potentially launch a leadership challenge against Sir Keir Starmer.
Q: Who is Andy Burnham and what does he want? Andy Burnham is the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, a prominent figure on the left of the party. He has long been seen as a potential prime minister. If he wins the by-election, he aims to replace Starmer as Labour leader and become PM, focusing on delivering change and a pro‑European Brexit reset.
Q: What would happen to Brexit negotiations if Burnham becomes prime minister? The UK is due to hold a summit with the EU on 22 July to sign deals on youth mobility, food trade and carbon taxes. EU sources say Brussels will proceed regardless of who is PM, and Burnham is expected to honour existing compromises rather than rip them up. His premiership would likely maintain the current direction of the Brexit reset.
What happens next is contingent on Thursday's result. If Burnham wins, he will resign the mayoralty, triggering a contest for that role which Reform UK hopes to win. Meanwhile, Starmer faces a possible leadership vote as early as next week. The July EU summit will go ahead, but the identity of the UK leader across the table may have changed. For now, the next few days will determine whether Starmer's final roll of the dice — a desperate offer of a cabinet role — has failed, and whether Britain is about to get its first prime minister from Manchester.