Andy Burnham, the man most likely to be Britain's next prime minister, has been described by Donald Trump as "the mayor of a town" and by a former Chief of the Defence Staff as needing a "Moscow test" for his policies. The contrasting assessments highlight the challenges he faces as he prepares to take over from Sir Keir Starmer.
Burnham is the only candidate so far in the race to replace Starmer as Labour Party leader and prime minister. He was elected to the new seat of Makerfield in the recent byelection, and is expected to be confirmed as leader next month. As mayor of Greater Manchester for nine years, he focused on domestic issues like homelessness and transport, and he has said he will continue to donate 15% of his MP's salary to local causes. An MP's salary is £98,599, and as prime minister he could claim a total salary of more than £174,039.
“Explains Andy Burnham's rise to PM, his devolution plans, defence stance, and key challenges.”
His path to No 10 comes at a time of global turmoil. Former Chief of the Defence Staff Admiral Sir Tony Radakin said the UK's next leader must operate "almost like a wartime prime minister" and fulfil a pledge to increase defence spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035, warning that the UK's military capabilities are "too bare". The government is preparing to publish its defence spending plan, the Defence Investment Plan (DIP), before the Nato summit in Turkey on 7 July. Defence Secretary John Healey and Armed Forces Minister Al Carns resigned earlier this month over what they said was insufficient investment.
Burnham's own approach to defence is less clear. He has previously said new legislation must pass a "Makerfield test" — meaning it must benefit his constituency. Sir Tony suggested a "Moscow test" instead: whether the UK looks like a strong Nato ally, a strong nuclear power and a strong ally of America. Burnham has generally avoided commenting on foreign policy, and some supporters want him to keep focusing on domestic issues. However, the UK is hosting the G20 summit next year and the G7 the year after — both of which Trump would attend.
Burnham has been critical of Trump in the past. In 2017 he said he would refuse to meet him as a "matter of principle", and in 2021 he said any UK politician who gave Trump "the time of day" should be ashamed. Now, Trump has described Burnham as "extremely liberal" and said he "probably won't open up" the North Sea for further oil and gas drilling. Burnham's team declined to comment.
On domestic policy, Burnham is set to announce a "devolution revolution" in his first economic speech on Monday. He will pledge a "devolution-first" agenda, giving more powers and funding to mayors. This could include allowing combined authorities to keep 100% of any increase in business rates they generate. A source said the speech is about "rewiring Britain to work better for the communities that have been neglected". Burnham has previously said Labour's manifesto pledges not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT will stand if he becomes PM.
Q: What is the Makerfield test? The Makerfield test is a principle Andy Burnham has said he will apply to new legislation: that it must benefit the people of his Makerfield constituency. He compares it to the "Moscow test" suggested by Sir Tony Radakin, which instead measures whether policies strengthen the UK's defence posture.
Q: What are the key challenges facing Burnham as prime minister? He must balance a strong domestic focus on devolution and local powers with global responsibilities, including increasing defence spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035 and managing relations with Donald Trump. He also faces a divided party after the resignation of senior defence figures.
Q: How will Burnham's devolution plans work? He wants to hand more powers and funding to mayors and combined authorities, for example allowing them to keep 100% of any increase in business rates they generate to attract investment. This is part of a broader "rewiring of Britain" to give power back to communities he says were neglected under 14 years of Conservative rule.
What happens next: Burnham will deliver his first major economic speech on Monday, setting out his devolution plans. The government must publish the Defence Investment Plan before the Nato summit on 7 July. Meanwhile, the Labour leadership contest continues — if no other candidate emerges, Burnham will become leader and prime minister next month, with a full programme of global summits ahead.