Donald Trump, sitting in the Oval Office, described the man set to become the next UK prime minister as "the mayor of a town" — a slight that ignored Manchester's status as a city of 600,000 people. That man is Andy Burnham, the former mayor of Greater Manchester, who is now the clear frontrunner to succeed Sir Keir Starmer after winning the Makerfield by-election in June 2026. By mid-July, it seems almost inevitable that Burnham will be leading the country.
Andy Burnham became Labour leader and prime minister-in-waiting after winning the Makerfield by-election with 24,927 votes, a landslide in a constituency that had voted heavily to leave the EU. His path was further cleared when Darren Jones ruled out challenging him for the Labour leadership, though former armed forces minister Al Carns is still considering a run. Burnham has warned of the need to avoid "polarised, poisonous politics" like that seen in the US, but Trump has already signalled friction, describing Burnham as "extremely liberal" and predicting he will not reopen the North Sea for oil drilling — a move Trump has repeatedly urged.
“Andy Burnham's path to becoming UK prime minister after winning the Makerfield by-election, with analysis of his likely cabinet and key policy challenges.”
The background to Burnham's rise lies in the turmoil of the Starmer government. Starmer faced a bruising PMQs before his resignation, and defence spending became a thorny issue after Al Carns resigned over the issue. Burnham, who served as mayor of Greater Manchester since 2017, made his name as a left-leaning but pragmatic leader. His victory in Makerfield, a Leave-voting seat, required him to avoid re-running old Brexit arguments, despite having previously described himself as a Remainer. The country has moved on, polls show around 55% support for rejoining the EU, but Burnham has made clear he will not prioritise that fight.
For UK readers, the arrival of a Burnham government means significant change. His cabinet is likely to feature familiar names: Ed Miliband is expected to be kept on or promoted, possibly as chancellor; Shabana Mahmood may stay as home secretary; Wes Streeting could return to health or take the Foreign Office; Louise Haigh, who resigned as transport secretary after a fraud conviction over a missing work phone, is expected to return; and Angela Rayner, cleared by HMRC over stamp duty, is likely to be back. But key Starmer allies like Liz Kendall and Rachel Reeves face uncertain futures. On foreign policy, Burnham's relationship with Trump will be a major test — Trump has already dismissed him and demanded North Sea drilling. Domestically, Burnham's team will need to balance the left's desire for rejoining the EU with the reality that the country is not ready for that fight.
Q: Who is Andy Burnham? Andy Burnham is a Labour politician who served as Mayor of Greater Manchester from 2017 until he became an MP in the 2026 Makerfield by-election. He is now the clear frontrunner to become prime minister after Sir Keir Starmer resigned.
Q: Why does Donald Trump think Andy Burnham is 'extremely liberal'? Trump made the comment in response to a question about Burnham becoming PM. He also said Burnham would probably not reopen the North Sea for drilling, which Trump has urged. Trump's view is based on Burnham's past policies on climate and energy, including halting new oil licences.
Q: Will Andy Burnham take the UK back into the EU? Burnham has not made rejoining a priority. He won a Leave-voting seat by promising not to re-run old Brexit arguments, and his makerfield pitch focused on more centrist issues. While polls show around 55% support for rejoining, Burnham has not committed to immediate re-entry.
What happens next is that Burnham will become prime minister in mid-July, after which he will name his cabinet. Key decisions include who gets the top jobs — Ed Miliband, Shabana Mahmood, and Wes Streeting are all in the running. The first major foreign test will be dealing with Trump, who has already indicated a chilly relationship. On energy, the North Sea drilling question will be a flashpoint. And within Labour, factions will jostle for influence as the new government takes shape.