Ten years ago, at 10pm on 23 June 2016, the polls closed in the EU referendum. Across the south and south-east of England, flash flooding had closed Waterloo, Euston and London Bridge stations, stranding tens of thousands of commuters – many unable to get home in time to vote. Yet early signs pointed to a comfortable Remain victory. Nigel Farage told Sky News: “It’s been an extraordinary referendum campaign, turnout looks to be exceptionally high – and it looks like Remain will edge it.” YouGov’s prediction confirmed the confidence: Remain 52 per cent, Leave 48 per cent. Pollster Peter Kellner forecast an 8.5 per cent lead for Remain, writing that “the final UK result should be somewhere in the range of Remain 51.2-57.3 per cent”.
By 7.40am the next morning, the official declaration told a different story: 52 per cent to Leave. The Remain campaign had failed. The People’s Vote, the umbrella movement born to reverse Brexit, “famously failed”, as the New Statesman later noted, “in a way that many look back on with something perhaps worse than regret: cringe”.
“Ten years after the EU referendum, the night Remain seemed certain to win is revisited, alongside the fate of People's Vote campaigners now scattered across politics.”
Its activists, however, did not disappear. Mark McVitie, formerly of Our Future Our Choice – one of the People’s Vote constituent groups – went on to work for the Labour Growth Group and now operates behind the scenes of government. On the right, Sam Ashworth Hayes, once an activist for the People’s Vote subsidiary In Facts, is now a figure in Reform. Will Dry, a co-founder of Our Future Our Choice, became a No10 spad under Rishi Sunak before a dramatic departure; he later appeared in a Hope Not Hate report on right-wing influence networks. Even the man behind the viral “sticky toffee pudding guy” videos, who reviews desserts with charm, was involved in founding the youth anti-Brexit movement For our Future’s Sake.
Their dispersal through British politics reflects a simple reality, as the New Statesman observes: “There isn’t a lot of money in British politics, and the fairly well funded anti-Brexit world provided a lot of entry level jobs.” Those who started out in that world are now advisers, journalists, pollsters – and dessert reviewers.
A decade on, the question of rejoining is surfacing again. Polling by Best for Britain – the only major Remain organisation that did not collapse – suggests public opinion has shifted. The next Labour leadership race, when it comes, will feature Europe. The Independent, marking the anniversary, has launched a campaign called Europe: The Way Back, “to explore ways to rebuild Britain's future relationship with Europe”.