On the night of 23 June 2016, a storm broke out over Brussels. Rain poured and lightning flashed over the European Union headquarters. The next day dawned grey and calm, but the political weather was raging: Britain had voted to leave the EU. Nigel Farage, then leader of the UK Independence party, declared the EU “finished” and “dead”. France’s Marine Le Pen, the Netherlands’ Geert Wilders and Italy’s Matteo Salvini called for their own referendums. “Only Bulgaria, Romania and Greece will remain when the domino effect is set off,” predicted Bulgaria’s then prime minister, Boyko Borissov.
Ten years later, no domino has fallen. Instead, on the anniversary, protesters marched in London branding Brexit “a travesty” and calling for the UK to rejoin the EU, according to reports. But on the continent, the mood is different. “Brexit changed the EU in one fundamental way,” said Michael Roth, Germany’s former Europe minister. “Leaving the club is no longer seen as a solution. It’s seen as a warning. The Brexit experience was so damaging, so costly, so complicated, so complex, that the appetite for that across the EU is very, very, very, very, very, very little.”
“On Brexit's 10th anniversary, marchers call to rejoin EU while the bloc sees countries queueing to join.”
Rather than departures, the EU is seeing countries queueing to join, impelled by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and Donald Trump’s threats to seize Greenland. This month the EU started detailed membership talks with Moldova and Ukraine, while accession prospects for western Balkan countries look more promising than at any time over the last decade. Iceland plans a referendum on resuming EU accession talks, and support for membership is growing in Norway, though it remains a minority view. “The UK [is] one of many countries seeking a closer relationship,” said Heather Grabbe, a former adviser to the European Commission. As a result, she added, “The UK has slid down the list of priorities,” as the EU confronts Russia’s war, Chinese economic competition and “whatever crazy thing Trump has done today”.
Charles Michel, the former Belgian prime minister who led the European Council from 2019 to 2024, still feels sadness at the British decision. But he concluded: “Brexit made decisions easier … no doubt.” He told the Guardian the vote made it easier for the EU to “be more engaged” in defence and security policy – useful preparation for a more dangerous world. For those marching in London, however, the hope of rejoining remains as distant as the storm that night a decade ago.