A decade on from the Brexit referendum, a new poll suggests that 55% of Britons would now vote to rejoin the European Union, with only 32% of the 10,000 people surveyed saying they would stay out. The findings come as a scorecard of the Leave campaign’s key promises reveals mixed results – and as analysts question how much sovereignty Britain has really regained.
The five years since the vote have made it easier to judge the impact. The promise of cheaper food never materialised; economists agree that new trade barriers have added costs for importers and retailers. Metro’s scorecard gives this pledge just 2 out of 10. The economy has proved more ambiguous. While Britain avoided the immediate post-referendum recession many predicted, Bloomberg Economics estimates that Brexit costs the country up to £200bn a year. The overall economic score: 4 out of 10.
“55% of Britons would rejoin EU, poll finds; Brexit scorecard shows mixed results on promises.”
Trade with the EU became more bureaucratic, particularly for smaller businesses, and while new global trade deals have been signed, they have not fully offset the extra friction with Britain’s biggest trading partner. Score: 4 out of 10.
But for many Leavers, the central issue was never the economy. As the UnHerd article notes, the referendum campaign was “a dialogue of the deaf”, with Remainers focused on the economy and Leavers on sovereignty, exemplified by immigration. “Brexit was an act of gross economic vandalism. Many Leavers understood that at the time. Most were indifferent,” the article states, quoting JG Fox, who said the campaign was “a dialogue of the deaf”. The promise to “Take Back Control” proved a winning formula.
Ten years on, the question is how much control Britain has really gained. The UnHerd analysis argues that in a world of huge nations like the US and China, smaller nations gain more control by joining powerful blocs like the EU. Britain’s ability to shape its own fate is inevitably more limited outside the union. The country’s historical foreign policy, dating back to Queen Elizabeth I, was to maintain a balance of power in Europe and resist domination by any single power – something harder to achieve as an outsider.
The scorecard shows a mixed picture, but the poll suggests a clear shift in public opinion. Whether that reflects regret or the British tendency to complain remains open to debate.