As Labour MPs filed out of Portcullis House on the last day before parliament rose, one found himself grasping for a metaphor that captured how concentrated Andy Burnham’s power had become. Flailing for something that did not sound insulting, he gave up and likened Burnham’s absolute control to North Korea’s Kim dynasty.
“It is a very congenial and receptive kind of dictatorship,” the article notes, but the comparison reflects a stark reality: never in British politics has such power been concentrated in the hands of such a tiny number of individuals, and never have so many of Labour’s biggest beasts had so little influence or leverage. No cabinet minister or rival leadership candidate has any card to play to cajole or threaten Burnham into giving them a role. All they can do is wait.
“Andy Burnham's secret 'black box' cabinet planning leaves Labour MPs in the dark, with power concentrated in a tiny triumvirate.”
Burnham’s plans are sealed inside what MPs call “the black box”. Inside that box are just three people: Burnham, his close confidante Louise Haigh, and his new chief of staff and old cabinet colleague James Purnell. Even some of Burnham’s closest staffers and parliamentary friends are out of the loop. If you are a plugged-in cabinet minister or a supportive MP but outside the black box, you can hear rumours, have opinions, make educated guesses, and talk directly to that triumvirate to try to understand their thinking – but you do not know for sure.
This vacuum of information is sending most of Westminster into a state of near hysterical paranoia. Wes Streeting, who thought he could be prime minister a few weeks ago, openly joked at a recent summer drinks reception about a sponsorship banner that advertised retirement planning. There is no guarantee whether key figures of the soft-left – Angela Rayner, Ed Miliband, and Lucy Powell – will get the roles they covet.
Burnham and Haigh have deployed this strategy once before, when the stakes were last at their highest – as Burnham sought a seat for a byelection. At that time, the rumour mill about who would step down was wild, involving Andrew Gwynne, Jim McMahon, even Powell. But when it came to the crunch, as Streeting looked as if he might trigger a contest, the WhatsApp groups went silent. Some of Burnham’s closest friends in parliament and outside admitted they had been cut out. When Josh Simons stood down in Makerfield, it came as a surprise even though it had been a possibility for some time.
Now, among the serious operators close to Burnham who make it their business to be in the know, a consensus has formed that the incoming prime minister intends to give the chancellorship to Shabana Mahmood, not Ed Miliband. They will be able to sense the responses to their lobbying efforts to keep the energy secretary out of No 11. But those inside the black box are not telling – and the rest of Westminster is left to wait.
