Andy Burnham increased Labour’s vote share by 10 points to 55% in the Makerfield by-election, defeating Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon by more than 20 points — a result that Sir John Curtice described as a “remarkable personal success”.
The victory came despite Labour being stuck at just 19% in the national polls and following two catastrophic by-election defeats. In Runcorn last year, Labour’s vote fell by 14 points; four months ago in Gorton & Denton, it collapsed by 25 points. In Makerfield’s local elections on 7 May, Labour trailed Reform by 20 points. Yet Burnham not only retained every bit of the 45% share Labour won in the seat in 2024, but pushed it higher — a turnaround Curtice said had “no evidence of any marked change in Labour’s popularity” nationally to account for.
“Andy Burnham increased Labour's vote to 55% in Makerfield, defying national polls and previous by-election losses.”
According to polls conducted during the campaign, Burnham’s personal appeal was decisive. Four in five of those who voted Labour in 2024 returned to the fold, compared with only a little over half of 2024 Labour voters nationally who say they would back the party again. Meanwhile, the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Greens were squeezed to just 3% of the vote between them — down 19 points on 2024. The Liberal Democrats’ 0.4% was their worst ever by-election performance; the Conservatives’ 2.2% was only marginally better than the all-time low of 1.9% recorded in Gorton and Denton four months ago.
Curtice attributed the squeeze to a mixture of tactical voting to keep Reform out, a desire to bring down the prime minister, and Burnham’s personal style and record as Greater Manchester mayor. Makerfield should have been prime territory for Reform: two-thirds of voters backed Brexit in the 2016 referendum. Yet Reform’s support rose just three points on 2024, well short of the 21-point increase it registered in Runcorn. Failure to take the seat will be a “particularly bitter blow for Nigel Farage”, Curtice said.
While Burnham’s personal triumph defied national trends, Labour’s wider difficulties were underscored by heavy defeats in two Scottish by-elections also held yesterday — the party’s vote fell by 19 points in Aberdeen South and 18 points in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry.