Andy Burnham has won the Makerfield by-election with 24,937 votes, easily defeating a field of more than a dozen candidates including Reform. The victory is a pivotal step in his plans to challenge Sir Keir Starmer for the leadership of the Labour Party and the country.
Starmer has clung to power since his party lost more than 1,400 councillors in May, a damning indictment of its drooping popularity. Close to 100 Labour MPs have called on the PM to hand back the keys to Number 10, with his refusal pushing some cabinet ministers to quit.
“Andy Burnham's by-election win pressures Keir Starmer as PM refuses to quit despite growing calls.”
If Starmer were to step down, a Labour leadership election would be automatically triggered. First, Labour MPs would put themselves forward, then all Labour MPs vote to whittle down options to two candidates, and finally party members vote to choose the new leader, who automatically becomes Prime Minister. Burnham has reportedly secured support from at least 81 Labour MPs – or 20% – to formally trigger a leadership contest. Once triggered, other candidates could join if they also had 81 backers. Starmer would automatically be on the ballot as he does not need to shore up support.
But Starmer shows no signs of leaving. He told reporters this morning he plans to stand in any leadership contest: “I have said repeatedly, I am not going to walk away from that.” In a lunchtime call with Labour staff, he warned against “plunging our party and our country into chaos”, saying the party needs to “pull together”, “take the fight” to Reform and “give them a hiding” in the Greater Manchester mayoralty contest. He did not mention Burnham by name.
Behind the scenes, Starmer-supportive MPs have approached Labour MPs – particularly those with small majorities – to warn that Burnham would call an early general election and put them at risk of losing their seats. Starmer’s allies argue that ousting him would play into the hands of the right-wing press.“The sense of duty has settled on Keir,” an ally says. “You can’t hand No 10 over to someone just because they ask you to. That’s not grown up.”
Starmer has a leadership campaign ready, including a “war chest” of £100k+ donations and a bank account for further funding. Anna Turley, chair of the Labour Party, wrote privately to cabinet ministers this week asking for detailed reports of departmental achievements by Friday, which ministers interpreted as material for a contest fought on the idea that Starmer has delivered substantial changes.
Team Burnham, however, is hoping Starmer will “come to his senses” over the weekend without mass resignations or a contest. Cabinet ministers may speak to him privately to urge him to go. The weekend is seen as a “grace period” for Starmer to set out a timetable for departure on his own terms. But so far there are no indications he is going anywhere.
One insider said Burnham’s team just hopes Starmer “comes to his senses”. Starmer, asked if he would walk away, replied: “I am not going to walk away from that.”