The day Sir Keir Starmer bowed to pressure from his own MPs and stepped down as Labour leader after just two years in office, the race to become the UK's next chancellor began in earnest.
Andy Burnham, the newly elected Makerfield MP and almost certain to be the next prime minister as soon as next month, is expected to want a new occupant for Number 11 Downing Street to replace Rachel Reeves. The incoming chancellor will inherit a daunting in-tray: high debt, low growth, welfare reform, defence spending, and the economic fallout from the US-Israel war with Iran.
“Andy Burnham's likely choice of chancellor is between Wes Streeting and Ed Miliband, with market confidence at stake.”
The bookies' favourite is Wes Streeting, the former health secretary who threw his weight behind Burnham during the leadership contest. Many believe he could be awarded the number two job for his loyalty.
But economist and cross-bench peer Lord Jim O'Neill, who has been advising Burnham, has warned against such an approach. "There are clearly some people pushing to be chancellor who feel they are owed it for their support," he told the BBC, without naming any individual.
Simon French, chief economist at consultancy Panmure Liberum, described Streeting as a "relatively market-friendly option" because of his pro-growth comments, but also a political risk because he might someday want to be prime minister. "Politics is what politics is. It's a popularity contest," French said.
Though Burnham may appreciate Streeting's backing, their politics differ — Burnham is seen as inclined to spend more than Streeting.
Ed Miliband, the bookmakers' second favourite, is politically closer to Burnham. The former Labour party leader and former Treasury adviser has been energy secretary, and his net-zero drive has been blamed by some for high energy prices.
Paul Johnson, former director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, sees the political alignment as positive. "You really don't want people in Number 10 and Number 11 having very different views," he said.
Others are divided on whether Miliband could rally the markets. Nick Macpherson, the former permanent secretary at the Treasury, told the Financial Times: "The key to gaining the confidence of the markets is to articulate, implement and deliver a coherent strategy. Miliband is one of the few cabinet members with the intellect, experience, and authority to do that."
Yet, analysts say that Miliband's reputation as an inflation risk, whether accurate or not, could affect how bond markets react to his time as chancellor.
With Burnham's coronation as prime minister expected next month, the choice of chancellor will be his first major test — and one that could define the markets' confidence in his government.