Andy Burnham has promised the “biggest rebalancing of power our country has seen” as he laid out plans to devolve power from Whitehall to every corner of the UK. In his first major policy speech, the newly sworn MP for Makerfield said the move was essential for boosting economic growth, warning that “we will never get growth up to the level Britain needs unless every single postcode in the land is set up to contribute to it.”
Burnham, the former Mayor of the Greater Manchester Combined Authority, said he would devolve power to Greater Manchester and other English city regions, extend devolution in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland – though he gave no details – and also grant Greater London more powers. The ambition is to take power away from the centre and spread it across the country.
“Andy Burnham promised the biggest rebalancing of power, but economists found no significant growth impact from past devolution.”
But BBC Verify has examined the impact of devolution on economic growth over the past quarter of a century and found little evidence that it has delivered the promised results. Scotland, which has extensive devolved powers including health, education, justice and policing, as well as control over most income tax rates and some welfare, has not seen a significant increase in overall growth rates. Wales, with more limited powers covering the NHS, education, housing and some tax powers – but no justice or policing – has fared similarly. Northern Ireland, which under the Good Friday Agreement has significant control over health, education and housing, has also not outpaced the UK average.
Most economists who have studied the issue have not identified any clear acceleration in growth in those nations since devolution began. There is also no evidence of them catching up with the UK average – a figure heavily influenced by the performance of London and the South East. Official statistics show that in 2023, GDP per capita in Scotland stood at roughly 93% of the UK average, in Northern Ireland at 83%, and in Wales at 74% – broadly the same relative positions as in 1998.
In England, city regions have seen some devolution, albeit less extensive. Manchester, Burnham’s former power base, has authority over transport, housing, skills and some health spending. Yet the pattern of growth remains stubbornly uneven.
However…