Andy Burnham stood before his audience on Monday and vowed to deliver the “biggest rebalancing of power our country has seen” – the centrepiece of his pitch for the premiership. In his first major policy speech, the newly sworn Makerfield MP laid out a radical devolution agenda: power would be stripped from Whitehall and handed to every corner of the UK, from Greater Manchester and England’s other city regions to Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and, for the first time in a generation, Greater London.
“We will never get growth up to the level Britain needs unless every single postcode in the land is set up to contribute to it,” Burnham declared, arguing that this transfer of authority was essential for economic revival.
“Andy Burnham promises 'biggest rebalancing of power' but BBC Verify finds no evidence past devolution boosted growth.”
Yet BBC Verify’s analysis of the evidence offers a sobering counterpoint. Scotland, after all, already enjoys extensive devolved powers – covering health, education, local government, environment, justice, policing, most income tax rates and some welfare. The Welsh Senedd runs the NHS in Wales, education, local government, housing and can vary income tax, though it lacks justice and policing powers. The Northern Ireland Assembly, under the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, controls health, education and housing. And Manchester, among English city regions, already has some of the most extensive devolved authority, spanning transport, housing, skills and health spending.
Yet most economists who have studied the impact of these past devolution settlements have not identified any significant increase in overall economic growth rates in Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland over the past quarter of a century. There is also no clear evidence of those nations catching up with the UK average – though that average is heavily influenced by the performance of London and the South East.
The statistics are stark. Official data shows GDP per capita – a measure of productivity – in Scotland stood at around 93% of the UK average in 2023, almost exactly where it was in 1998. Northern Ireland was at 83% and Wales at 74%, both essentially unchanged from a generation ago.
Burnham’s plan would be far bolder, extending devolution further in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland (though he gave no detail) and granting Greater London more powers. But the historical record raises an uncomfortable question: if two and a half decades of devolution did not boost growth, why would more of the same?