From the moment I stepped out of Wigan North Western railway station, it was clear something unusual was taking place. The first person I saw on the street outside was Darren Jones MP, the Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister. People were asking him for a selfie – a sight that would not normally happen in the centre of Wigan. But this was June 18 2026, the date of a vote so crucial that political reporters had quickly run out of superlatives to describe it. 'The most consequential by-election in modern British history' seemed to be the consensus.
At the centre of that vote is Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester and the most-liked politician in British politics right now. If Labour wins in Makerfield, the New Statesman reports, it will have been down to one man: Andy Burnham. In the most recent local elections, every one of the individual council wards in Makerfield went Reform's way, with Nigel Farage's party securing 50 per cent of the vote compared to Labour's 25 per cent. Labour has never done so badly in Wigan. Whatever the capacities of one candidate, Reform should be winning it.
“Andy Burnham leads by up to 12 points in Makerfield by-election as Conservatives vanish, set to finish behind Restore Britain.”
Yet the Makerfield constituency polls put Andy Burnham ahead by between 5 and 12 points. Without factoring for Burnham or tactical voting, the New Statesman's model has Reform winning by 14 points. That's what the demographics, local election results and nationwide polls imply right now. If Labour put up any other candidate, it wouldn't even be close. But factor only for that apparent Burnham effect – as first demonstrated through the Survation for Datapraxis research – and you end up with Burnham winning the race by 2 points. Add tactical voting into the mix and that Burnham lead grows to 3 points, and factor for Restore Britain on top of that and Burnham's lead grows to more than 5 points. The Burnham effect in Makerfield is a surge for Labour of 16 points, Labour doing as well, if not better, than it did at the 2024 General Election.
If the nation's eyes are fixed on Labour versus Reform, there is another story unfolding in this corner of Greater Manchester. It is ignored, because its roots stretch back much further, and its progress is more gradual. Yet it is no less significant. For amid the voters and canvassers and garden stakes seen in Makerfield – cheering for Reform, Labour, Restore and the Greens – one name remained strikingly absent: the Conservatives. It's not that voters in Makerfield despise the party. It's just they don't seem to care. As recently as 2019, the Conservatives came second in the seat, winning more than 14,000 votes. Pollsters now have them within the margin of error of zero. In the Gorton and Denton by-election at the end of February, the Conservatives garnered less than 2%. In Makerfield, they are set for a similar fate, only this time slipping behind Restore Britain, whose candidate – Rebecca Shepherd – is a rare example of a populist candidate who doesn't have much to say. For the first time in British politics, the most successful electoral vehicle in modern history, the party of Wellington, Churchill and Thatcher will finish third among parties of the Right.
Should Andy Burnham triumph in Makerfield, he'll likely be our next prime minister. If Reform upset the odds, then Nigel Farage might as well start browsing his nearest John Lewis for Downing Street curtains. Victory in the Northwest, against Labour's most popular national figure, would represent a new high water mark for the turquoise tide. Restore Britain is the greatest unknown, but according to the Britain Predicts model, its impact wouldn't be the difference between Burnham winning or losing. It will, however, expose the weakness to Nigel Farage's right: a loss of 5 points or more to each Reform candidate across Great Britain today would mean Reform go from winning 300 seats in the Commons to 220 seats, with Labour the biggest beneficiary.