Andy Burnham’s path to a potential Labour leadership bid runs through Makerfield – and through a deeply gendered electoral divide. The Greater Manchester mayor, who said on Thursday night he would seek to enter any leadership contest if he wins the 18 June by-election, holds a ten-point lead over Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon, according to a Survation poll. But that headline advantage masks a striking fault line: Burnham’s lead among women is emphatic, while among men he is neck and neck with Kenyon.
The gender gap is all the more notable because voter uncertainty is lower among women than men – the opposite of typical polling patterns. The likely cause? Kenyon’s past comments on abortion, which have become a defining feature of the campaign. In posts on X, the Reform candidate called abortion “the cowardly act of murdering a defenceless baby” and wrote: “don’t dole out the ‘what if someone is raped by their brother’ argument.” On Thursday’s Question Time, he refused to apologise for remarks about Carol Vorderman. Kenyon, a plumber and local councillor, has warned against using Makerfield as a “stepping stone” and criticised Burnham’s record as mayor, saying “while Manchester thrives, we’re struggling to survive in Wigan”.
“Andy Burnham says he will seek Labour leadership if he wins the Makerfield by-election, as a gender divide emerges in the polls.”
Burnham, meanwhile, made his leadership ambitions explicit during the BBC Question Time special in the constituency. “I think Wes Streeting seems to have launched a leadership contest, so if that is running I would seek to join it,” he said, adding that he would need to persuade fellow Labour MPs. Any challenger must be an MP and have the backing of 81 Labour MPs. The by-election was triggered after the incumbent, Josh Simons, stood down – a move he said was to allow Burnham to run for Parliament and potentially mount a leadership bid.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has defied calls from some Labour MPs to resign after poor local election results last month. A No 10 spokesperson said: “The prime minister will not walk away from the mandate he was given just two years ago to build a stronger, fairer Britain.” Justice Secretary David Lammy insisted Starmer had “a mandate from the British people less than two years ago” and his “full support”, while Attorney General Richard Hermer said the PM had “consistently been underestimated” and “always proven his critics wrong”. Wes Streeting, who has confirmed he would enter any contest, encouraged voters to back Burnham, saying he wants “a proper contest with the best candidates on the field”.
Demographic analysis by Britain Predicts shows Makerfield is naturally favourable to Reform – even when Labour wins nationally, the constituency tends to vote Reform. But the Survation poll, which records Labour’s vote share even higher than in the 2024 landslide, suggests something else is at play. As voters head to the polls on 18 June, the question hangs over the campaign: could misogyny sink Reform?