Andy Burnham would seek to enter any Labour leadership contest if he wins the Makerfield by-election on 18 June, the Greater Manchester mayor declared during a BBC Question Time special in the constituency. The announcement comes as a Survation poll gives Burnham a ten-point lead over Reform UK candidate Robert Kenyon, widening from three points in recent weeks. But behind the headline lead lies a stark gender divide: Burnham’s advantage among women is emphatic, while among men he is neck and neck with Kenyon.
Kenyon, a plumber and local councillor, has warned against using Makerfield as a “stepping stone” and called for a “big move away from career politicians”. However, his own campaign has been overshadowed by controversial social media posts on abortion. In one X post, Kenyon wrote: “Abortion is the cowardly act of murdering a defenceless baby.” In another, he wrote: “don’t dole out the ‘what if someone is raped by their brother’ argument.” The comments are unusual for a mainland British by-election, and Kenyon further sparked criticism for refusing to apologise for remarks about Carol Vorderman during Thursday’s Question Time.
“Andy Burnham says he will seek Labour leadership if he wins Makerfield by-election, as poll shows gender divide.”
Burnham, who needs to win the seat vacated by former Labour MP Josh Simons to become a parliamentary candidate, criticised “point-scoring before problem-solving” in Westminster. Pressed on his own ambitions, he said: “I can’t do anything unless I’m lucky enough to get the support of people here. But if I get your support, I would seek to represent you at the highest possible level … I think Wes Streeting seems to have launched a leadership contest, so if that is running I would seek to join it.”
Streeting has confirmed he would enter any potential contest and encouraged people to back Burnham in Makerfield, saying he wants a “proper contest with the best candidates on the field”. Any challenger must be an MP and secure the backing of 81 Labour MPs. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has defied calls from some MPs to step down after poor local election results last month. A No 10 spokesperson said: “The prime minister will not walk away from the mandate he was given just two years ago to build a stronger, fairer Britain.” Justice Secretary David Lammy said a contest had not been triggered but added that if there is one, Starmer “will be in it”. Attorney General Richard Hermer said Starmer has “consistently been underestimated” and “always proven his critics wrong”.
Kenyon, meanwhile, attacked Burnham’s record as mayor, saying that while Manchester “thrives we’re struggling to survive in Wigan”. The by-election is expected to be a straight race between the two. Britain Predicts demographic analysis shows Makerfield is favourable to Reform, but Burnham’s lead in the Survation poll – including a Labour share greater than the 2024 landslide – suggests misogyny over Kenyon’s comments could be sinking Reform’s chances. The question now is whether women voters, typically more uncertain in polls but here showing lower uncertainty, will decide the outcome.