Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor, has openly declared he would seek to enter any Labour leadership contest—but only if he wins the Makerfield by-election on 18 June. Speaking on a BBC Question Time special in the constituency, Burnham said: “If I get your support, I would seek to represent you at the highest possible level and give this constituency maximum power and influence.” He added: “I think Wes Streeting seems to have launched a leadership contest, so if that is running I would seek to join it.”
The by-election was triggered when then-Labour MP Josh Simons stepped down—a move he said was intended to allow Burnham to run for Parliament and mount a potential leadership bid. To enter a contest, a challenger must be an MP and secure the backing of 81 Labour MPs. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has defied calls from some Labour MPs to resign after poor local election results last month, and a No 10 spokesperson insisted: “The prime minister will not walk away from the mandate he was given just two years ago to build a stronger, fairer Britain.”
“Andy Burnham says he would seek Labour leadership if he wins Makerfield by-election, as poll shows gender divide.”
But the real battle in Makerfield may turn on a different fault line. A Survation poll gives Burnham a ten-point lead over Reform UK candidate Robert Kenyon—widening from three points in recent weeks. The survey exposes a sharp gender divide: Burnham leads emphatically among women, while among men he is neck and neck with Kenyon. Unusually, women voters show lower uncertainty than men, a pattern that defies typical polling trends. Analysts point to Kenyon’s controversial comments on abortion—he called it “the cowardly act of murdering a defenceless baby” on X—and his refusal to apologise for remarks about Carol Vorderman on Question Time. Kenyon himself has warned against using Makerfield as “a stepping stone” for career politicians, saying there is a need for “a big move away from career politicians.”
Yet Burnham’s record as mayor is not without vulnerabilities. Abandoned plans to charge polluting vehicles £60 a day in a clean air zone for Greater Manchester remain fresh in the minds of some voters—a potential weakness the Reform campaign could exploit. While Burnham points to a decade of above-average economic growth, improved public transport and education, the clean air zone debacle could yet come back to haunt him.
The vote on 18 June is expected to be a close contest between Burnham and Kenyon, a plumber and local councillor. Despite Labour’s national difficulties, the poll suggests Burnham may still hold an edge—if he can mobilise women voters turned off by his rival’s rhetoric. Either way, the result will shape not just the composition of Parliament but the future of the Labour Party itself.