Andy Burnham has declared he would seek to enter any potential Labour leadership contest should he win the Makerfield by-election on 18 June—a contest that has become defined as much by gender politics as by Westminster ambition.
The Greater Manchester mayor made his intentions clear during a BBC Question Time special in the constituency, saying: “I can’t do anything unless I’m lucky enough to get the support of people here. But if I get your support, I would seek to represent you at the highest possible level and give this constituency maximum power and influence.” He added that he believed Wes Streeting had “launched a leadership contest” and would seek to join it.
“Andy Burnham seeks to enter Labour leadership contest if he wins Makerfield by-election on 18 June, amid gender divide over Reform candidate's abortion comments.”
His declaration came after then-Labour MP Josh Simons stepped down, a move he said was to allow Burnham to run for Parliament and potentially mount a leadership bid. Any challenger must be an MP and secure the backing of 81 Labour MPs.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has defied calls from some Labour MPs to step down after poor election results last month. A No 10 spokesperson said: “The prime minister will not walk away from the mandate he was given just two years ago to build a stronger, fairer Britain.” Justice Secretary David Lammy said Starmer had his “full support” and “a mandate from the British people less than two years ago”. Attorney General Richard Hermer said the prime minister had “consistently been underestimated” and “always proven his critics wrong”.
But the by-election race between Burnham and Reform UK candidate Robert Kenyon has taken an unexpected turn. A Survation poll gives Burnham a ten-point lead over Reform, widening from three points a few weeks ago. The poll exposes a stark gender divide: Burnham’s lead among women is emphatic, while among men he is neck and neck with Kenyon. Voter uncertainty is lower among women than men—unusual, as women are typically more likely to answer “don’t know” in opinion polls.
The gender gap may be linked to Kenyon’s social media posts on abortion, which have featured heavily in the campaign. In one X post, Kenyon wrote: “Abortion is the cowardly act of murdering a defenceless baby”. In another, he stated: “don’t dole out the ‘what if someone is raped by their brother’ argument.” He has also faced criticism for comments about Carol Vorderman and refused to apologise for them in his Question Time appearance.
Kenyon has warned against using Makerfield as a “stepping stone” and called for a “big move away from career politicians”. He criticised Burnham’s record as mayor, saying that while Manchester “thrives, we’re struggling to survive in Wigan”.
Despite the constituency being demographically favourable to Reform—Britain Predicts analysis shows that even in scenarios where Labour wins a majority nationally, Makerfield still votes Reform—the Survation poll showing Labour support greater than the 2024 landslide throws that analysis into question. As one commentator noted, “Could misogyny sink Reform?”
The vote on 18 June will determine not only who represents Makerfield but whether Burnham gets the platform he needs to challenge for the leadership—and whether Kenyon’s controversial views have alienated the women voters who may decide the result.