Andy Burnham has won a thumping victory in the Makerfield by-election, defeating Reform UK’s Rob Kenyon by more than 9,000 votes and increasing Labour’s majority in a seat the party has held for over a century. The result, which Burnham’s allies hope will propel him towards a leadership challenge against Sir Keir Starmer, has left Nigel Farage “disappointed” and his party grappling with a warning from its own board that Reform has a “woman problem”.
Farage blamed the defeat on a desire among voters to eject the prime minister. “In many ways, he’s a popular local mayor, just as Boris Johnson was a popular mayor in London just a few years ago,” Farage said of Burnham in a video clip. “But what really happened here is it was ‘vote Burnham, get Starmer out’.” He conceded his party had also lost votes to the right-wing rival Restore Britain, founded by ex-Reform MP Rupert Lowe, which finished third. “There’s a couple of thousand voters there who would normally have gone out and voted Reform, that voted Restore,” Farage said, urging them to return: “We are the challenger party to the left in this country. And I would urge you to think again, I really, really would.”
“Burnham thumps Reform by 9,000 votes in Makerfield; Farage blames anti-Starmer sentiment as Reform warned of 'woman problem'.”
The Reform leader admitted he had expected 18,000 votes but got “just shy of 16 [thousand]”. The party had sought to defeat Burnham – the outgoing mayor of Greater Manchester – to boost its credentials as the main opposition to Labour, but Burnham increased Labour’s majority in a rare feat for a governing party candidate. Turnout was nearly 59 per cent, more than six points higher than the 2024 general election, yet the anti-Labour surge many predicted failed to materialise.
For Starmer, the result is unmistakably grim. The New Statesman reports that “more reports from the doorstep of a visceral hatred of the prime minister … seem to confirm his days are numbered”. However, the prime minister has said he will stand and fight any leadership challenge. Burnham, now with a parliamentary seat, is expected to challenge for the keys to No 10.
Meanwhile, Reform faces internal unease. Gawain Towler, the party’s former head of communications and now a senior board member, warned that Reform’s “masculine image” risks alienating female voters – a problem laid bare by the Makerfield result. The party’s poll share has drifted from around 31 per cent last autumn to perhaps 27 per cent now, and it has now underperformed in several by-elections. As one commentator noted, people may hate Starmer, but “many hate unabashed misogyny and Nigel Farage, too”.