Andy Burnham’s campaign has been forced to talk ministers out of resigning as early as this weekend to avoid Keir Starmer’s government descending into chaos amid fallout from the Makerfield byelection, the Guardian can reveal.
As Burnham prepares for a potential change of leader if he beats Reform on Thursday, his team is increasingly concerned a rapid collapse would mean further instability. Senior campaign figures believe Starmer should be given time to set out a departure timetable, with Burnham not planning to announce any challenge immediately after the result.
“Burnham's campaign tells ministers to delay resignations to prevent Starmer government chaos.”
But some ministers are “trigger happy”, Burnham allies revealed, suggesting several below cabinet level could resign to pressurise Starmer. “We’re trying to hold that back. We can’t have a Boris Johnson-style collapse. If they’re trying to force Keir’s hand with a kamikaze approach it will ultimately be counterproductive,” a senior campaign figure said.
Starmer has insisted he will fight any challenge, believing he has a duty to the country, though some of his closest allies predict the leadership crisis may reach a tipping point where he has no option but to stand down. His allies have discussed a “100m hurdles” strategy involving obstacles such as the danger of losing the Manchester mayoralty or the fragile geopolitical situation.
Supporters of Burnham expect senior cabinet ministers to tell Starmer over the weekend to agree to a handover. “We want to give Keir time and space to come to terms with the reality of his situation. Andy wants a managed transition. It’s what Labour MPs want. We need to keep the government on track,” a close Burnham ally said.
The Guardian also revealed that Burnham met Wes Streeting in secret – a putative leadership rival even though many MPs remain undecided.
If Burnham wins the Makerfield byelection, the Labour party rulebook sets out that to challenge a sitting leader, an MP must be nominated by at least 20% of the parliamentary party (currently 81 MPs), as well as by at least 5% of local branches or three party-affiliated groups, of which two must be unions. Any contenders meeting the threshold go to a vote of party members if there is more than one challenger.
If Starmer steps down immediately and no other challengers come forward, Burnham would still need to go through formal process, but with a coronation looming, it could be completed in days. Alternatively, Starmer could agree a timetable to depart after a final diplomatic mission to the Nato summit in Ankara in early July. Without a full contest, Burnham would likely wish to take over before parliament goes into recess in late July.
Starmer has repeatedly ruled out stepping aside. The question now is whether the prime minister will hold firm or bow to pressure from his own party – and how long that decision will take.